72 YEAR CYCLE SHOWS CRISIS & OPPORTUNITY
JUST AHEAD!!
In this presentation, I will be showing you evidence that we are currently in the midst of a major turning point in a longer-term approximate 72 year social cycle. And, if it holds true to the past we will see significant changes in the fabric of our society and the way we live our lives during the next several years. The 72 year cycle is a piece of a large puzzle which gives added perspective and color to what the future may have in store for us. There are three other presentations on this website which I believe add more parts to the puzzle of what our future will look like. They are: Cycles in History, which is an audio presentation where I interpet Dr. Raymond Wheeler's 500 year cycle and also, the 90 to 100 year generational cycle. Then, EXCITABILITY where I decribe the 10 to 11 year cycle in the rise and fall of social intensity and how it will color the next several years. Lastly, SELL DOLLARS & BUY GOLD, which lays out what some of the legendary investors are saying the U.S. economy and the value of the dollar.
First, I must state that nobody knows how it will turn out! The most obvious characteristic in all of the previous 72 year cycles was an extremely high stress level which affected everyone. During similar periods in previous cycles, as it is today, there were massive speculative bubbles, banking crises, massive currency depreciations, volitile and unstable economic trends, loss of public confidence in institutions, and wars. In such major turning points in our history great leaders have emerged, like George Washington, Abraham Lincoln, and Franklin D. Roosevelt, who changed the direction of this country forever. ..This is a long-term dynamic cyclic process that is colored by our unique circumstances, and it will likely shape our collective character well into the future. I have outlined below the important events that have marked each of these 72 year epic periods and their harmonics, the 36 year period (1/2), and the 18 year period (1/4) going back to 1637. And yes, many of us will view these coming changes with apprehension, while others will see the rare opportunities which will be offered by these coming changes. I believe, the great resiliency of this country's citizens will see us through the good and the bad of it! From my perspective, I think it is likely we heading into a period of slow growth with frequent recessions, ..and it may take us from 10 to 20 years to bring about the social and financial changes needed to bring things back into a healthy, livable balance. The amount of time it will take will depend upon the quality of our decisions. ...and the decisions of our leaders
The same cycle analysis that tells us are entering this period of difficulty will also tells us when it will likely end!
Over the last 50 years, Americans have developed mind-boggling technical, financal, and social innovations, ..some which have moved society ahead, while others may have put us at risk. There are financial trends that appear to have gone to unsustainable extremes, such as: the historically low public savings (cash in the bank) and high debt levels relative to national income, both of these have inflated asset values into "bubbles" like housing prices, stock prices, and probably retail consumption. For years, seeking personal "happiness" was sought through materialism at the expense of social relationships and spiritual growth. Over next several years, I think we will see a realignment of important financial ratios, such as debt to income, savings to income, asset values to utility, ..and socially, the importance of family time will gain over career time, while escapism will lose to the search for meaningful self-development. If the pattern is to remain true to the past, there will be a substantial decline in credit availablity with the possibility of a major banking crisis, which forces us to live within our means. In some cases, real incomes will be reduced and unproductive jobs painfully eliminated. Significant government projects like alternative energy and rebuilding waterworks could become a major source of jobs. Then, once many of the financial excesses are elimatinated the country will move back to a mode of self-sustainability.
Today, we live on fast food, drive fast cars, and embrace the fast lifestyle, and needless to say fast markets. In historical terms all this "fastness" does not seem normal ..and it's not. It is symptomatic of escapism and an over-leveraged society. The cost of this overindulgence is seen straight-foreward in the breakdown of the family unit. Unfortunately, as Thomas Jefferson predicted over 200 years ago, in a democracy the people will elect those politicans who will promise them the most, in "give-aways and free lunches", is this system viable?? The answer is NO! In the United States, we are now chasing income (and cashable assets) to maintain our lifestyles at the expense of bedrock relationships, Seemingly, not enough time for slow walks around the block, listening to the birds sing, or long casual conversations with those we love. Too much debt changes our behavior! We will find time for those simple pleasures and responsibilities once again!
In New York City on August 14, 2003, there was a black-out which lasted for 12 hours, the 8.1 million population could have reacted in various ways. As the energy needs around the world increase as lifestyles in third world countries move toward availablity around the instant communications will connect the citizens of the world into a more interdependent community
will have a many intriguing implications for our immediate future and for decades to come. . ..It is probably generational cycle in nature or perhaps a collective social pattern that shows bursts of heightened excitibility that surrounds the years of important historical events. This is a 72 year repetitive pattern (as outlined below) that seems to have appeared with clockwork regularity throughout at least the last 350 years of our history. In each 72 year period the circumstances are different, but similar in behaviorial characteristics. It seems that about every 72 years we collective find ourselves in a vulenable postion
REVIEWING THE HISTORY OF THE 72 YEAR CYCLE
The low point I am using in the last 72 year cycle is the stock market low of July 8,1932. This was a time of great uncertainy, social stress, and disallusionment caused by the wipe-out of wealth caused by the 1929 stock market crash the economic depression, and high unemployment. This did not change until the public and markets put what trust they had left in the obvious coming presidental election of Franklin D. Roosevelt and his "New Deal". His management of this social and economic crisis and his leadership during World War II that made him great and endeared by most people in the western world. The financial spicets recrimination that follows, disillusionment with the governments ability to guide our future. "We have nothing to fear but fear itself" ..but what caused that fear and doubt to begin with??
In cycle analysis, the more repetitions that occur, the more confidence we have that a real cycle is at work. When there are only a handful of repetitions, as with the 72 year pattern, then we must look internally within the pattern at fractal behavior for additional supportive evidence. Here, we look for similar behavioral charcteristics of the longer-term pattern on a lesser scale at the mid-point (36 years, then 18 years) of each 72 year period. And, this evidence does show up ..enough to convince me that we are looking at a social pattern of real substance and importance!
The fundamental circumstances during each 72 year cycle low are distinctly different and unique to those times. But, there are also simaliarities which draw them together and define a period in our immediate future (2004 to 2012) which could be dramatic, intense, and historic in its affects on our society.
potential lead up to "The Great Depression" has an errie parallel with the excesses and imbalances of today!
In each of the following major 72 year cycles lows listed below, I have found some common characteristics which I believe will be repeated during the next several years or in fact have already been occurred in recent years. Here is a list of those characteristics and I would suspect there are more:
1. There is a period of high social stress which spans several years (5 to 10 years). During these historic cycle low periods, the public is anxious about their future. This is due to economic upheavals, wars, and the foreseeable future is unclear. People are uncomfortable about uncertain about their future
72 YEAR CYCLE - HIGH STRESS EPIC - UNKNOWN THEME?? (2004)
72 Year Cycle - G.R. BUSH or R. KERRY CRISIS/EPIC?? PRESIDENT (2004)
72 Year cycle - Stock Market Low (2002-2006)
72 Year cycle - Currency Crisis (2003-2008)
72 Year Cycle - Economic Upheaval (2001-2007)
18 Year cycle - Currency Crisis (1985)
18 Year cycle - Recessionary Low (1982)
18 Year cycle - Stock Market Low (1982)
36 Year Cycle - High Stress Mid-Cycle (1968-1975)
36 Year cycle - Stock Market Low (1970 & 1974)
36 Year cycle - Currency Crisis (1967 & 1973)
36 Year cycle - Economic recession (1970 & 1975)
18 Year cycle - Currency Crisis (1949)
18 Year cycle - Stock Market Low (1949)
72 YEAR CYCLE - HIGH STRESS EPIC - THE GREAT DEPRESSION (1932)
72 Year Cycle - FRANKLIN D. ROOSEVELT CRISIS/EPIC PRESIDENT (1932)
72 Year Cycle - Economic Depression Low (1932)
72 Year cycle - Stock Market Low (1932)
72 Year cycle - Currency Crisis (1931)
18 Year cycle - Currency Crisis (1913)
18 Year cycle - Recessionary Low (1914)
18 Year cycle - Stock Market Low (1914)
36 Year Cycle - High Stress Mid-Cycle (1896)
36 Year cycle - Stock Market Low (1896)
36 Year cycle - Currency Crisis (1895)
36 Year cycle - Economic depression (1893-1897)
18 Year cycle - Currency Crisis (1877)
18 Year cycle - Depression Low (1878)
18 Year cycle - Stock Market Low (1877)
72 YEAR CYCLE - HIGH STRESS EPIC - CIVIL WAR (1860)
72 Year Cycle - ABRAHAM LINCOLN CRISIS/EPIC PRESIDENT (1860)
72 Year Cycle - Economic Upheaval (1857)
72 Year cycle - Stock Market Low (1861)
72 Year cycle - Currency Crisis (1859)
18 Year cycle - Depression Low (Debt Repudiation)(1843)
18 Year cycle - Stock Market Low (1843)
18 Year cycle - Currency Crisis (1841)
36 Year Cycle - High Stress Mid-Cycle?? (1824)
36 Year cycle - Stock Market Low (1819)
36 Year cycle - Currency Crisis (1823)
36 Year cycle - Economic depression (1816-1818)
18 Year cycle - Currency Crisis (1805)
18 Year cycle - Stock Market Low (1805)
72 YEAR CYCLE - HIGH STRESS EPIC - A NEW NATION IS BORN (1788)
72 Year Cycle - GEORGE WASHINGTON CRISIS/EPIC PRESIDENT (1789)
72 Year Cycle - Recessionary Low (1787)
72 Year cycle - Currency Crisis (1787)
1720-1788 – The American Colonies went through a series of economic depressions and did not have an extended period of prosperity until after the US Constitution was signed on July 2, 1788. In October-December 1788 commodity prices stabilized and the economy began improving.
72 YEAR CYCLE HIGH STRESS EPIC – MISSISSIPPI & SOUTH SEAS BUBBLES (1716)
Primarily in England and France
1716 - John Law established a private bank called Law & Co., and promises bank notes his bank issues will be redeemable on demand for coins.
1717 - John Law sets up the Mississippi Company to exploit wealth of the French colonies in America.
1719 - The Mississippi Company was given a monopoly of trade over the East Indies and China. Excessive speculation in the Mississippi Company shares ensued which created a huge financial “bubble”.
1720 - The “bubble” combined with over-issuance of notes by the Banque Royale collapsed when the Banque was forced to halt payments on those notes.
1719-1720 – The South Sea Company in England was established to take advantage of trade in Central and South America. Excessive speculation in South Sea shares created a “bubble” which collapsed and left the banking system in shambles. Banking and company laws were changed and it took decades to fully recuperate.
36Year Cycle - High Stress Period (1680)
1688 - The Glorious Revolution in England
William of Orange and his wife Mary are made jointly sovereign by parliament after James II flees to France. Political and economic power is in the process of shifting from the monarch to the moneyed classes and thus the financial and constitutional revolutions are closely and causally intertwined.
72 YEAR CYCLE HIGH STRESS EPIC – TULIPMANIA & THE ENGLISH CIVIL WAR (1644)
Primarily in Holland and England
1637 – Tulipmania in Holland was a tulip bulb-trading frenzy which turned in a display of mass speculation
1642 to1651 - English Civil War
The war is fought because parliament disputes the king's right to levy taxes without its consent. The use of goldsmith's safes as secure places for people's jewels, bullion and coins had increased after the seizure of the mint by Charles I in 1640 and increases again with the outbreak of the Civil War. This accelerates the tendency of some goldsmiths to become bankers and development of that aspect of their business continues after the war is over.
From the Bolshevik Revolution - November 1917 to the demise of the Soviet Union December 1989 ..The 72 year Cycle at work!!
And what will come of China, if this 72 year pattern holds true for them?? On October 19, 1949, The Communist People's republic of China was formally proclaimed by Mao Tse Tung. Adding 72 years to 1949 we come to the year of 2021 when major changes may sweep across china ..once again.
