SPEED & HARMONIC RESEARCH
The price analysis on this page is based on average velocity "speed", it's price/time junctures and harmonics ..it is something you have probably never seen before.
- Hal Swanson
An old but fitting quote: "Rhythm is in time what symmetry is in space."
READ THE RISK DISCLOSURE STATEMENT AT THE BOTTOM OF THIS PAGE BEFORE ACTING ON ANY OF THESE RECOMMENDATIONS. TRADING ANY MARKET IS A RISKY VENTURE. ..especially with the current volatility!!
The majority of the charts and analysis below are taken from e-mails sent to clients on the date posted on each chart.
S & P 500 INDEX -(CONTINUATION DAILY) - (07/18/08)
NY CRUDE OIL (WEEKLY CONTINUATION) - (07/16/08)
NY CRUDE OIL (DAILY CONTINUATION) - (07/16/08)
LIVE CATTLE (DAILY AUGUST) - (07/07/08)
This chart is an early trend projection in progress.
LIVE CATTLE (DAILY AUGUST) - (07/18/08)
And, here is how the projection turned out.
NY GOLD (DAILY CONTINUATION) - (01/09/08)
This chart is a trend projection in progress.
NY GOLD (DAILY CONTINUATION) - (07/17/08)
And, here is how the projection turned out.
NY GOLD (DAILY AUGUST) - (07/17/08)
10YR. TREASURY NOTES (DAILY CONTINUATION) - (12/20/07)
This is a trend projection in progress.
10YR. TREASURY NOTES (DAILY CONTINUATION) - (07/17/08)
And, here is how the projection turned out.
EURODOLLARS (WEEKLY CONTINUATION) - (07/17/08)
This is 90 day debt futures not the Eurocurrency.
I'm in the process of a long overdue update to this page which should be completed by 07/21/08.
US DOLLAR INDEX (60 MINUTE CONTINUATION) - (12/27/07)
US DOLLAR INDEX (60 MINUTE CONTINUATION) - (12/31/07)
US DOLLAR INDEX (60 MINUTE CONTINUATION) - (01/04/08)
US DOLLAR INDEX (60 MINUTE CONTINUATION) - (01/07/08)
US DOLLAR INDEX (60 MINUTE CONTINUATION) - (01/09/08)
DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS -(SPOT INDEX DAILY) - (01/08/08)
DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS -(SPOT INDEX DAILY) - (01/04/08)
S & P 500 INDEX -(CONTINUATION DAILY) - (01/04/08)
EUROCURRENCY (DAILY CONTINUATION) - (01/04/08)
US DOLLAR INDEX (WEEKLY CONTINUATION) - (12/31/07)
US DOLLAR INDEX (60 MINUTE CONTINUATION) - (01/04/08)
US DOLLAR INDEX (60 MINUTE CONTINUATION) - (12/31/07)
30YR. TREASURY BONDS (WEEKLY CONTINUATION) - (12/19/07)
10YR. TREASURY NOTES (WEEKLY CONTINUATION) - (12/19/07)
S & P 500 INDEX -(SPOT WEEKLY) - (12/07/07)
This S & P 500 weekly chart indicates the market rise since the October 2002 lows occurred at one-half the speed or average velocity of the overall decline from the March 2000 highs down to the October 2002 lows. This chart is an example of my Retracement Model and it gives me the impression of a market developing an intermediate or major top.
S & P 500 INDEX -(CONTINUATION DAILY) - (12/10/07)
The S&P 500 chart below is clearly in an uptrend but it's showing a lose of upward momentum and months of high volatility, these two characteristics are often evidence of a significant top forming.
DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS -(SPOT INDEX DAILY) - (11/07/07)
The chart below (in a very simplified format) gives another perspective of applying average velocity or speedlines and proportions to project a target for a market which is in a trending mode. This longer-term simplified Trending Model covers a period of five years and missed the target date by one day and the price target by 55.64 Dow points. Also, this target being completed adds credibility to the idea of at least an intermediate top in the stock market.
DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS -(SPOT INDEX DAILY) - (12/07/07)
Looking at the Dow Jones Industrials daily chart, if we assume that 14198.10 on October 11, 2007 is a major high, then a downward retracement can be measured (using the October 2002 lows of 7197.49). The inital sell-off occurred at 8 times the speed of the overall rise which rather rare and is usually indicative of topping action (a third indication of a potential top). Look for resistance in the area of 13743 if this is the case.
DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS -(SPOT INDEX WEEKLY) - (11/07/07)
This weekly Dow is a longer-term perspective of the daily Dow chart above. This weekly chart (spanning a period of eight years) shows a more complete measurement of the Retracement Model and how the price action is beginning to interact with the model. When the market begins to deviate away from the retracement model that also tells us something else is going on, ..most likely that the price correction is over and the market is returning to a trending mode.
Ideal Retracemnet Model
The following chart shows some of the internal harmonics of the Retracement Model and how they relate to Fibonacci ratios.
DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS -(DECEMBER DAILY) - (11/08/07)
The following chart is the Dow using the dynamic Volatility-Trending Bands which give me an excellent sense of where the market is at relative to its trend, it also gives us some dynamic proportionality to the price swings, along with other shorter-term characteristics of price action.
DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS -(SPOT INDEX 60 MINUTE BARS) - (12/07/07)
This 60 minute chart combines the short-term upward retracement projections which indicate resistance in the area of 13686 to 13707 next week. The dynamic Volitility-Trending Model also on the chart indicates a short-term overbought condition and resistance in the current price area.
Working with proportionality (1)
The following three charts represent my early application of the concepts of average velocity, speedlines, and proportions. I did trade this chart of October 1974 cattle and profitably caught much of the decline from early August 1974 into mid-September. I have spent the following decades defining and refining these concepts into the models I'm using today.
Working with proportionality (2)
Working with proportionality (3)
GOLDMAN SACHS COMMODITY INDEX (DAILY CONTINUATION) - (12/07/07)
GOLDMAN SACHS COMMODITY INDEX (DAILY CONTINUATION) - (07/20/07)
GOLDMAN SACHS COMMODITY INDEX (WEEKLY CONTINUATION) - (12/07/07)
GOLDMAN SACHS COMMODITY INDEX (WEEKLY CONTINUATION) - (07/20/07)
DECENNIAL PATTERN (1900 TO 2002) - This decade pattern indicates that stocks prices usually bottom in the second (2002) to third year (2003) of each decade and begin to accelerate upward in the fifth (2005) year. The stock market appears to be continuing along this path. A big rally in stock prices could come out the 102-124 week (02/22/05 to 07/26/05) cycle low, followed by a very significant low occurring between 03/09/07 to 09/08/07 the 4 to 4.5 year low. Also, based on the two long-term retracement models above, the 03/2009 to 09/2009 period is significant, as it is the peaking period for the decennial pattern below.
INTEREST RATE YIELD CURVE CYCLE - commentary coming.
Source: Positive Yield Curve Peak.
THE REAL PRICE OF GOLD 1344 TO 1999 (1999$)
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...You can contact Hal Swanson at 1-713-522-1161 or halswanson@cfos100.com ..if you have questions.
I will include you on my e-mail update list if you fill in and send to me the information below. A further reference: Calculating Retracements by Hal Swanson, Technical Analysis of Stocks & Commodities magazine, April 1987, http://store.traders.com/-v05-c04-calcula-pdf.html
PLEASE READ THE RISK DISCLOSURE STATEMENT LINKED AT THE BOTTOM OF THIS PAGE BEFORE ACTING ON ANY OF THESE RECOMMENDATIONS. TRADING COMMODITY FUTURES IS A VERY RISKY VENTURE. ..especially with the current volitility!!
