S & P 500 INDEX -(CONTINUATION DAILY) - (07/18/08)
10YR. TREASURY NOTES (DAILY CONTINUATION) - (12/20/07)
This is a trend projection in progress.
10YR. TREASURY NOTES (DAILY CONTINUATION) - (07/17/08)
And, here is how the projection turned out.
EURODOLLARS (WEEKLY CONTINUATION) - (07/17/08)
This is 90 day debt futures not the Eurocurrency.
DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS -(SPOT INDEX DAILY) - (01/08/08)
DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS -(SPOT INDEX DAILY) - (01/04/08)
S & P 500 INDEX -(CONTINUATION DAILY) - (01/04/08)
30YR. TREASURY BONDS (WEEKLY CONTINUATION) - (12/19/07)
10YR. TREASURY NOTES (WEEKLY CONTINUATION) - (12/19/07)
S & P 500 INDEX -(SPOT WEEKLY) - (12/07/07)
This S & P 500 weekly chart indicates the market rise since the October 2002 lows occurred at one-half the speed or average velocity of the overall decline from the March 2000 highs down to the October 2002 lows. This chart is an example of my Retracement Model and it gives me the impression of a market developing an intermediate or major top.
S & P 500 INDEX -(CONTINUATION DAILY) - (12/10/07)
The S&P 500 chart below is clearly in an uptrend but it's showing a lose of upward momentum and months of high volatility, these two characteristics are often evidence of a significant top forming.
DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS -(SPOT INDEX DAILY) - (11/07/07)
The chart below (in a very simplified format) gives another perspective of applying average velocity or speedlines and proportions to project a target for a market which is in a trending mode. This longer-term simplified Trending Model covers a period of five years and missed the target date by one day and the price target by 55.64 Dow points. Also, this target being completed adds credibility to the idea of at least an intermediate top in the stock market.
DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS -(SPOT INDEX DAILY) - (12/07/07)
Looking at the Dow Jones Industrials daily chart, if we assume that 14198.10 on October 11, 2007 is a major high, then a downward retracement can be measured (using the October 2002 lows of 7197.49). The inital sell-off occurred at 8 times the speed of the overall rise which rather rare and is usually indicative of topping action (a third indication of a potential top). Look for resistance in the area of 13743 if this is the case.
DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS -(SPOT INDEX WEEKLY) - (11/07/07)
This weekly Dow is a longer-term perspective of the daily Dow chart above. This weekly chart (spanning a period of eight years) shows a more complete measurement of the Retracement Model and how the price action is beginning to interact with the model. When the market begins to deviate away from the retracement model that also tells us something else is going on, ..most likely that the price correction is over and the market is returning to a trending mode.
DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS -(DECEMBER DAILY) - (11/08/07)
The following chart is the Dow using the dynamic Volatility-Trending Bands which give me an excellent sense of where the market is at relative to its trend, it also gives us some dynamic proportionality to the price swings, along with other shorter-term characteristics of price action.
DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS -(SPOT INDEX 60 MINUTE BARS) - (12/07/07)
This 60 minute chart combines the short-term upward retracement projections which indicate resistance in the area of 13686 to 13707 next week. The dynamic Volitility-Trending Model also on the chart indicates a short-term overbought condition and resistance in the current price area.
30YR. TREASURY BONDS (WEEKLY CONTINUATION) - (06/07/07)
30YR. TREASURY BONDS (WEEKLY CONTINUATION) - (07/18/07)
30YR. TREASURY BONDS (DAILY CONTINUATION) - (06/07/07)
30YR. TREASURY BONDS (DAILY CONTINUATION) - (06/13/07)
30YR. TREASURY BONDS (DAILY CONTINUATION) - (06/20/07)
30YR. TREASURY BONDS (SEPTEMBER 60 MINUTE BARS) - (06/20/07)
10YR. TREASURY NOTES (DAILY CONTINUATION) - (06/13/07)
NASDAQ 100 (DAILY CONTINUATION) - (01/25/07)
30YR. TREASURY BONDS (DAILY CONTINUATION) - (01/25/07)
30YR. TREASURY BONDS (DAILY CONTINUATION) - (01/25/07)
30YR. TREASURY BONDS (DAILY CONTINUATION) - (12/14/06)
DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS (DAILY INDEX) - (12/13/06)
S & P 500 (15 MINUTE CONTINUATION) - (11/11/06)
S & P 500 (60 MINUTE CONTINUATION) - (11/02/06)
NY CRUDE OIL (DAILY CONTINUATION) - (10/30/06)
30YR. TREASURY BONDS (DAILY CONTINUATION) - (10/30/06)
S & P 500 (DAILY CONTINUATION) - (10/30/06)
S & P 500 (DAILY CONTINUATION) - (10/17/06)
U.S. 30YR. TREASURY BONDS (60 MINUTE CONTINUATION) - (10/20/06)
U.S. 30YR. TREASURY BONDS (DAILY CONTINUATION) - (10/20/06)
S & P 500 (60 MINUTE CONTINUATION) - (10/03/06)
S & P 500 (DAILY CONTINUATION) - (09/29/06 @ CLOSE)
S & P 500 (60 MINUTE CONTINUATION) - (09/29/06)
S & P 500 (5 MINUTE CONTINUATION) - (09/29/06)
S & P 500 (DAILY SEPTEMBER) - (08/12/06)
NY CRUDE OIL (WEEKLY CONTINUATION) - (10/03/06)
S & P 500 (MONTHLY CONTINUATION) - (06/01/06)
30YR. U.S. TREASURY BONDS (DAILY CONTINUATION) - (05/31/06)
30YR. U.S. TREASURY BONDS (DAILY CONTINUATION) - (05/30/06)
S & P 500 (DAILY CONTINUATION) - (05/23/06)
S & P 500 (WEEKLY CONTINUATION) - (05/13/06)
30YR. TREASURY BOND (DAILY CONTINUATION) - (04/26/06)
30YR. TREASURY BOND (WEEKLY CONTINUATION) - (04/07/06)
30YR. TREASURY BOND (WEEKLY CONTINUATION) - (04/07/06)
30YR. TREASURY BOND (DAILY CONTINUATION) - (04/06/06)
30YR. U.S. TREASURY BONDS (WEEKLY CONTINUATION) - (03/22/06)
30YR. U.S. TREASURY BONDS (DAILY CONTINUATION) - (03/22/06)
S & P 500 (DAILY CONTINUATION) - (02/08/06)
VOLATILITY INDEX (VIX) S & P 500 (DAILY CONTINUATION) - (02/08/06)
S & P 500 (60 MINUTE CONTINUATION) - (02/08/06)
30YR. TREASURY BONDS (60 MINUTE BARS CONTINUATION) - (12/08/05)
EURODOLLARS (SEPTEMBER 2006 DAILY) - (11/16/05)
U.S. 30YR. TREASURY BOND (DAILY CONTINUATION) - (11/11/05)
S & P 500 (60 MINUTE CONTINUATION) - (11/11/05)
S & P 500 (DAILY CONTINUATION) - (11/11/05)
S & P 500 (WEEKLY CONTINUATION) - (11/11/05)
EURODOLLARS (WEEKLY CONTINUATION) - (10/07/05)
10YR. TREASURY NOTES (60 MINUTE CONTINUATION) - (07/12/05)
EURODOLLARS (WEEKLY CONTINUATION) - (07/07/05)
10YR. TREASURY NOTES (DAILY SEPTEMBER) - (07/13/05)
NASDAQ 100 (DAILY CONTINUATION) - (05/19/05)
NASDAQ 100 (DAILY CONTINUATION) - (05/19/05)
S & P 500 (DAILY CONTINUATION) - (05/19/05)
S & P 500 (DAILY CONTINUATION) - (05/26/05)
10YR. TREASURY NOTES (60 MINUTE CONTINUATION) - (05/24/05)
10 YEAR TREASURY NOTE (MARCH DAILY) - (03/15/05) -
DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS FUTURES (WEEKLY CONTINUATION) - (03/15/05) -
10 YEAR TREASURY NOTE (WEEKLY CONTINUATION) - (02/06/05) -
10 YEAR TREASURY NOTE (DAILY CONTINUATION) - (02/06/05) -
S & P 500 (DAILY CONTINUATION) - (01/24/05) It looks like the long-term upward correction from 09/01/00 high to the 03/12/03 low may be ending ..and the bears are getting hungry! The Iraq elections/terrorists acts are weighing on the Dollar and also the stock market.
S & P 500 (DAILY CONTINUATION) - (10/15/04)
DOW INDUSTRIALS 1932 TO 2000 (EXCEL SPREADSHEET) -
The information below here is being updated (under construction) over the next couple of weeks ..hopefully!
DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS (LONG-TERM CONTINUATION; 1932 to 2000) - The Dow Jones is approaching its long-term equi-angle speedline (at 10836.77) which should represent a significant resistance area, ..we shall see! The S & P 500 (basis the chart below) is approaching its intermediate-term upside target of 1163.83 (50%) ..watch for a potential pattern change (flattening out and/or possibly a sharp profit-taking sell-off in that area).
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL INDEX (EXCEL SPREADSHEET) - Commentary coming.
STOCK MARKET CYCLES (LONGER-TERM) - Here are some potential cycle "LOWS" which should be quite noticeable if they occur: 09/02/03-10/07/03 (1/2 50-60 wk.), 02/24/04-05/04/04 (50-60wk.), 02/22/05-07/26/05 (102-124 wk.), and 03/09/07-09/08/07 (4-4.5yr.), ..the last one should look like the 03/11/03 low. You've got to love harmonics!
DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS (1982 TO 2000 RETRACEMENT) - The following two retracement spreadsheets are really quite interesting. If you compare the retracement PRICE LEVELS of the two, you will see they match up very closely! IMPORTANT PRICE LEVELS TO WATCH! Both of these models are relevant ..and on track. Now, the 102-124 week cycle low is due 02/22/05 to 07/26/05 (on the spreadsheet above), notice on the retracement model below, that "A> 0.25 = 8858.74 on 03/14/05" and C>0.5>DM (double the speed) = 6162.49 on 03/14/05" ..this fits into the cycle low time frame.
DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS (1932 TO 2000 RETRACEMENT) - Also, the target date "D> 0.5 = 6162.49 on 09/19/09" on the 82-00 model above is relatively close to the "A1> 0.125 = 10115.78 on 03/15/09" on the model below, which means 03/2009 to 09/2009 will likely be a very significant time frame for the stock market. The longer-term dates will likely have social relevance on a generational scale. ..It would be nice to be around to see what happens!
US 30yr TREASURY BONDS (MONTHLY CONTINUATION) -
US 30yr TREASURY BONDS (WEEKLY CONTINUATION) -
US 30yr TREASURY BONDS (EXCEL SPREADSHEET) - br>
S & P 500 (PRICE/EARNINGS RATIO) - (01/12/04) Based on return on investment the S & P 500 is very overbought.
S & P 500 (DAILY CONTINUATION) - (01/05/04) The market is now matching the velocity of the upmove from 03/12/03 to 06/17/03, the next important price/time period to watch is 1144.65 (01/14/04) to 1163.83 (01/23/04), there could be a sideways pattern develop there. Longer-term the major retracement window is 1163.83 (06/10/03) to 1252.65 (09/22/03), it fits with the election schedule. When the price crosses the blue equi-angle speedline it's more likely the upward correction has ended!
US TREASURY BONDS (DAILY CONTINUATION) - (01/05/04) T-bonds are in a broad sideways channel from about 106.16 to 111.16 heading towards the retracement window at 110.04 (01/26/04) to 107.02 (03/22/04). Seasonally, T-bond prices top out between November and February. I suspect that the next rally up over the next few weeks may set-up as a good short sale ..perhaps up to that 110.04 area or a little higher.
10/30/03 - Updated: S & P 500 30 Minute chart. Market is moving up the 2X (double) average velocity line. The projected target is 1053.80 late Thursday.
10/27/03 - Updated: S & P 500 30 Minute chart. After a minor decline to the 2X (double) average velocity line. The S & P should be set-up to rally from here.
10/27/03 - Updated: S & P 500 30 Minute chart. An upward price retracement at 8 times the average velocity (8X AV) of the previous trending move is rare and usually indicates a trend change. In this case, an intermediate rally.
S & P 500 (DAILY CONTINUATION) - (10/24/03) The market is moving down the double speedline (selling off at twice the velocity of the recent rise). I expect some support and bounce in the 1000 to 1005 area. It looks like the topping out process has started.
10/09/03 - Updated: MARCH EURODOLLARS daily chart.
US TREASURY BONDS (DAILY CONTINUATION) - (10/03/03)
S & P 500 (DAILY CONTINUATION) - (10/08/03) The stock market appears to have fully priced in a very robust recovery (does'nt seem likely)with the current S & P 500 P/E ratios at 29.46 vs 29.41 on March 31, 2000. ..Maybe, we should call it a "P/E ratio bubble"? Looking at the chart below we see that the S & P is losing upward momentum, and the price action has flattened out since June. Multi-year correlations indicate a counter-seasonal top could be completed by mid-October and the next important cycle date is 10/23/03. When the S & P crosses the blue "same speed" line the psychology should turn more negative and the index should accelerate to the downside.
S & P 500 (MONTHLY CONTINUATION) - (10/01/03) A monthly perspective.
S & P 500 (CORRELATION STUDY) - (09/29/03) This chart comes from (www.MRCI.com) Moore Research Center, Inc., which is the best number cruncher in the commodity futures business (there is a direct link on our home page). Their study shows in the chart below, two years which have an 80% or greater correlation with the past 267 days price action in the December S & P contract. "IF" this pattern holds true, then one more rally up before a sell-off. Notice this runs totally opposite to the seasonal pattern at the bottom of the chart which shows a period of tremendous weakness and bottoming over the last 15 years. Most markets will periodically have a counter-seasonal move. What it says to me, is a potential top could develop in the next couple of weeks.
10/03/03 @ CLOSE - S & P INTRA-DAY - After putting in the day's high and a 90 minute consolidation, the S & P at 1:50pm (13:50) began breaking down and sold off 10.80 points in 55 minutes. It's always impressive when the price action fits the models this precisely.
DECEMBER S & P 5 minute chart. and a closer look at the chart.
10/03/03 @ 11:50AM - S & P INTRA-DAY - Market continues to rally with twice the speed of the overall decline from 1038.50 to 988.00, 100% return to 1038.50 is due at 1:50pm (13:50) today. Worth a look.
DECEMBER S & P 5 minute chart.
10/01/03 - S & P INTRA-DAY (@CLOSE)- Market rallies with twice the speed of the overall decline from 1038.50 to 988.00 and has come back more than 50%. Worth a look.
DECEMBER S & P 5 minute chart.
09/16/03 - S & P 500 (DAILY CONTINUATION) - Click Here. The stock market is picking up strength and appears headed for the next resistance area at 1043, then possibly 1081. The dates at the blue crosses represent ratios from the low on 07/08/1932 to the high on 09/06/2000. Look at 09/30/01 = 1/64th, 10/24/02 = 1/32nd, and 07/09/03 = 1/24.
09/16/03 - EURODOLLARS (DAILY JUNE 2004) - Potential short sale coming up. Look for resistance in the 98.50 to 98.62. I think it's a good longer-term entry.Click Here.
09/10/03 - 30YR. US T-BONDS (SEPTEMBER DAILY) - BONDS ARE AT A POTENTIAL BREAK-OUT AREA. BREAK-OUT ABOVE 108.31 OR BELOW 107.02 SHOULD GET FOLLOW-THROUGH. Click Here.
08/26/03 - RECORD US BUDGET DEFICIT -Click Here. The projected huge US budget deficits for the next several years are a negative for the Dollar and future economic growth. And, this heavy government borrowing will likely return us to a prolonged high interest rate environment!.
07/29/03 - S & P 500 (5 minute chart) -Click Here. Updated: Looks like potential upward breakout over 975.50 and a move up to retracement price levels >> Resistance at 975.51, 980.80, 986.09.
07/29/03 - S & P 500 (60 minute chart) -Click Here. Updated: Looks sideways within downward correction. Resistance at 986.43 @ 10:30am cycle point.
S & P 500 (MONTHLY CONTINUATION) - (08/20/03) - THIS CHART SPEAKS FOR ITSELF! The stock market is in a very pivotal area right now, ..the next move from here should be with high amplitude emotion and price direction. I would prefer to see it go up, ..so I can sell it at higher levels.
S & P 500 (MONTHLY CONTINUATION) - (08/20/03) - THIS CHART SPEAKS FOR ITSELF! The stock market is in a very pivotal area right now, ..the next move from here should be with high amplitude emotion and price direction. I would prefer to see it go up, ..so I can sell it at higher levels. Do stocks belong in the Social Security Trust Fund?? ..I don't think so, but who will be the next big buyer (Feds?)?? If stocks start down, then bonds will likely rally, ...we're in the dog days of August!-Click Here.
b>08/19/03 - 30YR. US T-BONDS (DAILY CONTINUATION) -Click Here. Looks like an important double bottom may be in place. Upside resistance is at 108.07-108.21, 110.02-110.08, 111.06-111.30, with an extreme upward objective area of possibly 113.06-113.15-113.28.
08/19/03 - 30YR. US T-BONDS (DAILY CONTINUATION) -Click Here. Bonds appear to be setting up for a bounce, ..watch 103.20 on 08/27/03 for a reversal pattern to develop.
08/11/03 - S & P 500 (30 minute chart) -Click Here. Updated: 11:00am potential significant cycle turn.
07/29/03 - 30YR. US T-BONDS (30 minute chart) -Click Here. Here is the projected upward correction.
08/06/03 - S & P 500 - Daily Continuation Chart Click Here. Market has crossed the double speedline, found resistance against the longer-term 1994 to 2000 speedline (which looks dominant), and appears headed for the next lower average velocity speedline.
08/06/03 - S & P 500 - 60 minute bar chart Click Here. A full 50% to 61.8% retracement would bring the S & P down to 901.26 (08/18/03 @ 10:30pm) to 874.46 (08/22/03 @ 01:30am). This would be a full correction from the March 12th to July 14th rally. It sorta ..kinda looks like we've topped out.
08/05/03 - S & P 500 - 60 minute bar chart Click Here. Here's a longer-term chart which goes back to the March lows. It looks like we've topped out! ..more details coming.
07/29/03 - 30YR. US TREASURY BONDS -Click Here. ON TRACK FOR ..Speedline target of 103.20 on 08/08/03.
08/05/03 - 2:30pm - S & P 5 minute bar chart Click Here Bought one at 972.70, ..sold out at 971.00 ($375.00 loss) cancelled stop @ 970.50. Longer-term, if t-bonds bottom out on 08/08/03 then look for stock market to rally in sympathy 08/08 to 08/10.
08/05/03 - 1:35pm - S & P 5 minute bar chart Click Here Price action OK, bought one at 972.70, put stop at 970.50 ..short-term double bottom, take profits @ 976.50 (1:55pm).
08/05/03 - 1:15pm - S & P 5 minute bar chart Click Here Need better price action going into 1;30pm for a solid double bottom.
08/05/03 - 12:25pm - S & P 5 minute bar chart Click Here Pattern changed. Stopped out at 975.50 ($500 profit), possible set-up (double bottom) at 97270 (1:10pm) to 971.70 (1:30pm), but must set-up right to interest me.
08/05/03 - 10:45am - S & P 5 minute bar chart Click Here Next, need to go thru 977.40 at 11:00am, moved stop to 975.50, first objective 981.55 at 12:00pm, then swing objective at 991.55 at 2:20pm.
08/05/03 - 10:25am - S & P 5 minute bar chart Click Here Bought at 973.50, stop 971.50 first objective 981.55 at 12:00pm, then swing objective at 991.55 at 2:20pm.
08/05/03 - 10:00am - S & P 5 minute bar chart Click Here Watch to buy at 10:15am.
08/05/03 - 09:27am - S & P 5 minute bar chart Click Here.
07/29/03 - 30YR. US TREASURY BONDS Click Here. Speedline target is 103.20 on 08/08/03.
US 30YR TREASURY BONDS (DAILY CONTINUATION) - (07/15/03) - An important price/time juncture was reached yesterday, 114.28 on 07/14/03. A hard break below this price level could accelerate into a washout taking the price down the double speedline to 108.07 on 07/28/03.
US 30YR TREASURY BONDS (DAILY SEPTEMBER) - (07/15/03) - Bond prices are starting to break down again. The sell-off could accelerate into a 100% retracement at twice the speed to 108.07 on 07/28/03.
07/15/03 - 12:25pm - S & P 5 minute bar chart Click Here. May try to break-out of the down channel to the upside ..looking at 13:15pm as a possible buy period.
07/14/03 - CLOSE - S & P 5 minute bar chart Click Here. Downside target of 1000.50 was reached at 3:05pm. A break below 1000.50 (early) would be a negative development, and could trigger a sell-off to 990 to 991.50 area. A rally above 1003 could see further buying up to 1009.80.
07/14/03 - 2:42pm - S & P 5 minute bar chart Click Here. downside target 100.50 at 3:00pm.
07/14/03 - 12:16pm - S & P 5 minute bar chart Click Here. Sideways drift, losing some short-term upward momentum..
07/14/03 - 10:39am - S & P 5 minute bar chart Click Here. Market is heading for swing objective 1010 (monday 11:35am to 11:40am). Look for direction then. probably higher ..but could break down to 1003 area ..but seems unlikely.
07/11/03 - CLOSE - S & P 5 minute bar chart Click Here. Market is heading for swing objective 1010 (will update time on Monday), there is minor weakness on close that needs to be regained early in the session.
S & P 500 (DAILY CONTINUATION) - (07/12/03) - Stock market is moving up with twice the speed of the overall decline from 1556.50 (09/01/00) to the recent low of 787.50 (3/12/03). The next upward target on this path is 1043.55 on 08/01/03, the 33.3% price/time juncture. The S & P is now working through the 1000 (07/08/03) juncture and needs to move higher to confirm a continuation of the upmove.
S & P 500 (DAILY CONTINUATION) - (07/08/03) Here is another perfect example of speed and harmonic analysis. In late 2000 my long-term retracement model projected a potential price/time target for the S&P500 at 1000 on 07/08/03 ..today, that target was precisely hit!! After 30 years of working with these models it still amazes me how mathmatical human psychology really is. As the market passes up through this juncture the bullish psychology should become more exuberant.
S & P 500 (DAILY CONTINUATION) - (06/04/03) - Stock market is aggressively moving towards it's price/time target.
US TREASURY 30YR BONDS (DAILY SEPTEMBER) - (07/08/03) The bond market has declined with twice the "average velocity" of it's recent rapid rise, and it has moved into an area (113.28 to 115.21) where we should see some consolidation develop. The next important dates are 07/11/03 (61.8%), 07/17/03 (75%), and 07/28/03 (50%). A set-up around these dates should be worth a short-term trade ..I expect even more volitility to develop around this major loose cannon! The US government at all levels must borrow more and more.
US TREASURY 30YR BONDS (DAILY CONTINUATION) - (07/08/03) Bonds have reached an important longer-term support area, several previous highs have occurred in this area and the market is also sitting on a long-term trend "speedline". We need to see some consolidation in this area, before another extended move occurs. A multi-year high is likely in place!
US TREASURY 30YR BONDS CYCLES (LONGER-TERM) - (07/08/03) The next important time frame on a cyclic basis is 07/18/04 to 01/17/05 (mid-cycle 9-10 year) and 09/18/04 to 12/19/04 (mid-cycle 3-3.5 year); I would expect a significant low in bond prices to occur in the latter part of 2004.
EURODOLLARS (WEEKLY CONTINUATION) - (07/09/03)
EURODOLLARS (DAILY CONTINUATION) - (07/09/03)
US TREASURY 30YR BONDS (DAILY CONTINUATION) - (06/24/03)
US TREASURY BONDS (DAILY CONTINUATION) - (06/13/03)
06/11/03 - Updated: US Treasury Bonds. The price has moved into the objective window!
06/11/03 - Updated: December Eurodollar 10 minute chart I'm ready for a price break.
05/30/03 - Updated: US T-Bonds - Here is another target date of 06/04/03, ..next week should be interesting!!
05/23/03 The daily Eurodollar chart looks like a potential of a sell-off here ..would like to see a close below 98.70 on 05/30/03. The sharply depreciating US dollar, is a growing negative for the Eurodollar market. As the US dollar goes down, it depreciates the total return to the lender. I'm adding a few March Eurodollar 98.50 "puts" at a cost of $337.50 + comm..
Daily Eurodollar Chart.
US TREASURY BONDS (DAILY CONTINUATION) - (05/19/03) Bonds have moved up to the projected speed-line and are heading for objective window of 121.25 (06/04/03 to 125.30 (07/21/03). It is possible a major top could form there! The date 06/04/03 has come up in several market measurements, I am looking for a significant change to occur around that date!
EURODOLLAR (DAILY CONTINUATION) - (05/13/03) The eurodollar is still set-up for a potential sell-off. Wall Street's "sales job" to talk the interest rates lower during last week's quarterly refunding ..worked! Promoting more inflation is negative for eudodollars. I'm buying March 2004 eurodollar 9850 puts at 18.
05/06/03 (10:30 AM)- 10 MINUTE DECEMBER EURODOLLAR CHART: Click Here.
05/02/03 (02:00 PM)- 10 MINUTE DECEMBER EURODOLLAR CHART: Click Here.
05/02/03 (09:50AM)- 10 MINUTE DECEMBER EURODOLLAR CHART: Click Here.
05/01/03 (12:10PM)- 10 MINUTE DECEMBER EURODOLLAR CHART: Click Here.
EURODOLLARS (WEEKLY CONTINUATION) - (04/29/03) The price drift has turned sideways, a price decline below 98.70 basis the June contract would make the chart more negative. ..I think the longs have painted themselves into a corner, we shall see!
S & P 500 (WEEKLY CONTINUATION) - (04/11/03) As many of the intense war worries are subsiding, the stock market appears set for some sideways relief. Once the "short sellers" realize there is limited downside potential, I expect a sharp rally (short-covering) with an upside potential of 1000 on 07/11/03. Alot of healing needs to take place ..over months.
EURODOLLAR (WEELY CONTINUATION) - (04/08/03) The sharp decline in eurodollar yields (-5.83%) over the last 33 months appears to be ending! If this is true, then longer-term eurodollar yields are projected to move to the "retracement window" on the chart below, which comes in at 4.16% (95.84) on 07/30/04 and 4.90% (95.10) on 12/03/04. I am aggressively buying eurodollar "put options" at every opportunity.
EURODOLLAR (DAILY CONTINUATION) - (04/12/03) For one year, eurodollars have been forming a triangular pattern showing a declining upward momentum with a spike in momentum at the top. We are now seeing a final breakdown through a significant long-term uptrend line. The brief topping pattern indicates a retracement "footprint" which is characteristic of at least a moderate sell-off. The initial decline is down the "2X AV LINE" followed by resistance at the "1/2 AV LINE", a solid close below support at 98.70 on or soon after 04/21/03 should confirm a significant sell-off is taking place. The next support comes in at 98.45 on 05/29/03, with a likely intermediate-term objective of 98.20 on 07/10/03, which is another important support area. There is the potential for a much sharper price decline, if the price drops at twice the speed of the overall rise from 06/02/00, then, the downside objective would be 97.44 on 07/10/03, ..a real possibility considering we are in a negative real interest rate environment with (non-petro) inflation rising!
I'm a buyer of eurodollar "put" options.
S & P 500 INDEX (DAILY CONTINUATION) - (03/25/03)
There is resistance in the current area of 870, the sideways price movement is a holding pattern with immediate clue to the next direction. Wait and watch ..I'm still bearish overall.
04/21/03 - Spring has arrived! Flowers are blooming, birds are singing, the clouds have parted, and optimism is slowly on the rise. Daily Eurodollar Chart
US TREASURY 10 YR. NOTES (DAILY CONTINUATION) - (03/06/03)
US TREASURY 30YR. BONDS (DAILY CONTINUATION) - (03/06/03)
Base on several different long-term measurements there is a conflunce (cluster) of significant dates that come into play between 01/20/03 and 02/04/03. I expect an intense shift in psychology during this period, ..either an acceleration of current trends or significant reversals!
US TREASURY BONDS (DAILY CONTINUATION) - (02/21/03) A major opportunity is setting up for a multi-year deline in T-bond prices. I think 2003 will represent a generational low in interest rate yields and a top in note/bond prices. A "short" list of reasons: defaulting on excessive debt, declining US dollar, rising inflation, flight of foreign investors away from US ..probably to Asia.
10YR. TREASURY NOTES (DAILY CONTINUATION) - (02/08/03) Commentary is coming ..look at the connection between the S & P 500, Dollar Index, and the 10yr. T-notes.
10YR. TREASURY NOTES (DAILY CONTINUATION) - (02/08/03)
S & P 500 (DAILY CONTINUATION) - (02/08/03) "THE FINAL RESTING PLACE" ??? ..READ'M AND WEEP!!
E-MINI S & P 500 (30 MINUTE BARS MARCH) - (01/30/03) The stock market is started an upward correction at 4 times the speed of the most recent decline (this is usually an early "footprint" of a signicant upward correction. The retracement window falls on the important dates of 02/04/03 to 02/05/03. Perhaps, this will be a good re-selling area in price and time. The market is now breaking down through support and needs to hold the 1X AV "speed" line to remain in an upward correcting mode.
S & P 500 (Daily Continuation) - (01/25/03) The S & P 500 is taking out December 2002 lows and appears to be accelerating it's decline. The next support is the major 4 year cycle low at 767.5 on 10/10/02. The market is now moving back to its lower projected "speedlines" with the "final resting area" (objective) at 560 (03/25/03 to 543 (06/23/03). In my humble opinion, the longer-term fundamentals justify these price levels.
US 30YR. TREASURY BONDS (Daily Continuation) - (01/25/03)- With all the present uncertainy, I am not recommending selling T-Bonds now. But, I am watching for topping action going into Febraury. The price is moving into long-term resistance, and with rising inflation fears, a declining US Dollar ..with the potential for a major exit of foreign capital out of US, safe-haven selling on an Iraq resoluation, and seasonal selling pressure, this combo puts T-Bonds on my "short" list. A MAJOR top is forming!!
DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS (Daily Continuation) - (01/14/03) In the midst of an upward retracement, Dow is moving up the equiangle speedline and is attempting to reach 8934 on 01/27/03. A drop below this speedline could put the Dow back on a downward path aimed at the 5593 (06/26/03) trend objective.
S & P 500 (Daily Continuation) - (01/14/03) Comparing the S & P 500 chart to the Dow above you can the S & P is considerably weaker and unable to stay on the equiangle speedline. The downside targets are 556 (03/25/03) to more likely 543 (06/23/03).
10/20/02 - The last time the 4 to 4.5 year cycle low occurred in the stock market was 10/08/98, in the midst of a global financial crisis. The next projected low for this cycle is 10/07/02 to 04/07/03, and may have occurred on 10/10/02. That day's wide ranging key-reversal, the following intense rally at 8 times the velocity of the previous intermediate price decline, and the accompaning optimistic shift in psychology are characteristic of this major cycle low.
S & P 500 Index (Monthly continuation) - (06/14/02)
S & P 500 Index (weekly continuation) - (06-14-02)
S & P 500 Index (daily continuation) - (06-14-02)
S & P 500 Index (daily continuation) - (06-14-02)
S & P 500 Index (weekly continuation) The current decline is now approaching an important turning/support area (1000 during the week of 06/10/02). The longer-term retracement model off the important low of 442.88 (12/09/94) to the last significant high of 1556.50 (09/01/00) shows the inital decline moving down the two times average velocity "speed" line, which is a behavioral characteristic ("footprint") of the model in general. The sideways movement since the low of 939.00 (09/21/01) indicates a pattern change which adds support to the idea of an important low occurring in the current price/time area. The next support area below here is the 868.30 area, which I'm not in a hurry to see. The market is very heavily short right now ..so a short-covering rally could be intense ..and offers a potential short-term buying opportunity. It will probably take another year or more before the bottom of the market actually occurs (look at the retracement window below). Even longer-term, off the low on 08/10/1982 the two times speedline comes in at 1250 as of 06/10/02, at the current speed it would indicate a low around 816.14 (03/08/05). Lastly, traveling at the same speed as the overall up move (from the 1982 low) the retracement window is 816.14 (09/13/09) to 647.65 (10/31/11) ..let's hope not.
S & P 500 Index (June daily) - (06/07/02) Here is a basic shorter-term swing projection. It indicates some support in the area of 1010.26, also watch the 1000 area on 06/11/02 for a possible important turn. The swing objective is projected for 976.82 on 07/08/02. A price movement above the 1X AV LINE on the chart below would indicate an end to the current down trending move. I'm interested in buying on bottoming price action.
S & P 500 (daily continuation) - (02/19/02) Heading into the soup! The mid-point target of 991.78 on 03/07/02 looks like the next stop.
S & P 500 Index (December futures) - (11/13/01) A close below 1092 could turn the market negative again. Seasonal rally is underway ideal upside retracement window is 50% = 1140 (11/19/01) to 61.8% = 1188 (12/03/01). I'm more interested in selling into the retracement window area.
S & P 500 Index (nearest futures) - (11/03/01) Key dates to watch 61.8% = (11/06/01), cycle dates = (11/12/01), and (12/24/01-12/25/01), ...also, shorter-term dates on the chart above (11/19/01) and (12/03/01).
S P 500 Longer-Term Retracement Model - (04/18)
S & P 500 Consolidated Spreadsheet Analysis
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S & P 500 Retracement levels with Speedlines
S & P 500 Consolidated Spreadsheet Analysis
S & P 500 Retracement levels with Speedlines
S & P 500 low-Oct 08, 1998 to high-Sep 01, 2000
S & P 500 low-Dec 09, 1994 to high-Sep 01, 2000
S & P 500 low-Aug 10, 1982 to high-Sep 01, 2000
S & P 500 low-Aug 10, 1982 to high-Sep 01, 2000
December S & P 500 Continuation Chart
P 500 Longer-Term Retracement Model - (04/18)
S & P 500 Consolidated Spreadsheet Analysis
December S & P 500 Cash Continuation Chart
There are two important cycles that could be bottoming on approximately 11/27/00. The 16 to 20 week cycle low which is due between 11/17/00 and 12/15/00, and the 50 to 60 week cycle low which is due between 10/02/00 and 12/11/00.
THE MARCH S & P 500 FUTURES ARE NEARING A MAJOR JUNCTION BETWEEN 1115.00 AND 1141.50 ..A CLOSE OUTSIDE THIS RANGE COULD TRIGGER AN EXTENDED MOVE!! ..IT LOOKS LIKE A LOWER MARKET TO ME. PROJECTED DOWNSIDE TARGET IS 800.28 ON 05/06/02 (COUNTER-SEASONAL MOVE) WITH THE IMPORTANT MID-POINT AT 991.78 ON 03/07/02. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT SUPPORT COMES IN AT 1084.75 ON OR BEFORE 02/05/02 (THIS DATE IS ALSO IMPORTANT IN T-BONDS).
S & P 500 (March 30 minute) - (02/12/02) The price action is trading into the upward "retracement window" a close below 1103.00 after 13:00 today could trigger another sell-off back into the 1070 to 1080 area ..or probably lower. I'm shorting it in the current area (1106) with a stop-loss at 1113.25.
S & P 500 (March 30 minute bar) - (02/12/02) This is a continuation of the chart above, the price action has moved through the retracement window and is starting to turn lower. The moving averages are converging which ususally occurs just before a move (up or down). A closing bar or two below 1103.50 should confirm the upward retracement is completed and the next trending move has starting.
S & P 500 (daily continuation) - (01/16/02) A close below 1115 could trigger a sharp sell-off ..and probably turn the U.S. dollar lower.
30YR Treasury Bonds Daily Continuation Chart
30 yr. Treasury Bonds Monthly Continuation Chart
30 yr. Treasury Bonds Monthly Continuation Chart
30 yr. Treasury Bonds Weekly Continuation Chart
December Treasury Bonds Daily Chart
U.S. Treasury Bonds (Daily Continuation) - (12/07/01)
U.S. Treasury Bonds (Continuation 30 minute bars) - (12/06/01) The hard sell-off occurred at 4 times the average velocity of the last upward significant trending move, and hit the 100% retracement point in both price and time. The market is still showing excessive weakness and needs more sideways movement (consolidation) before rallying from the current area. Look at the projected time frames on the chart below for further timing clues. Also, on the 5 minute chart below an important time frame to watch is 07:25am (101.22 area) on Friday 12/07 (which is in the unemployment report time frame). I'm interested in buying in the current price range over the next day or so.
U.S. Treasury Bonds (Continuation 30 minute bars) - (12/07/01)
U.S. Treasury Bonds (March 5 minute bars) - (12/06/01) We could be getting close to a major upturn, perhaps around 07:25am on Friday 12/07/01! Look how the price action develops on the three charts below.
U.S. Treasury Bonds (March 5 minute bars) - (12/06/01) See how the price action has coiled up as it moves toward the projected target of 101.22 at 07:25am on Friday 12/07/01! A strong rally up through 101.22 after 07:25am could signal the next up move.
U.S. Treasury Bonds (March 5 minute bars) - (12/07/01)
U.S. Treasury Bonds (March 5 minute bars) - (11/30/01) IThe short-term sell-off stopped at the 38.2% retracement. There is minor resistance in the area of 103.26 to 103.30.
U.S. Treasury Bonds (March 5 minute bars) - (11/29/01) Short-term swing high was 103.16vat 7:54 AM on 11/29/01.
U.S. Treasury Bonds (nearest futures) - (11/14/01)
U.S. Treasury Bonds (December futures) - (11/13/01)
U.S. Treasury Bonds (December futures) - (11/14/01)
Dow Jones Industrials Daily Continuation Chart
30yr Treasury Bonds Weekly Continuation Chart
30yr Treasury Bonds Weekly Continuation Chart
30 year Treasury Bonds (June futures) - (03/16) The pick-up in demand for borrowing starts taking hold by the end of February. As you can see by the chart below, T-Bond prices (the inverse of bond yields) start trending lower into the mid May period. This year with the Federal Reserve forcing interest rates lower ..the topping out of June T-Bond prices will probably be deferred into April/May (?). Let a top develop first ..before thinking of shorting it.
30yr. Treasury Bonds (nearest futures) - (04/10) It looks like T-bonds will sell-off to the 1/2X momentum line in the area of 100.00, then probably consolidate. The next hard sell-off in the stock market, perhaps in a few weeks, will probably turn the T-bonds back up. The double top is obvious and could portend a somewhat deeper break (97.00). The next important date for a potential turn period is 05/02/01.
U.S. Treasury Bonds (March 30 minute bars) - (12/14/01)
S&P 500 Index (cash continuation) - (12/12/01) The chart below shows almost a 100% price decline that fits within the long-term 50% to 61.8% retracement window time frame. This is usually quite bearish, and would indicate that the following upward intermediate move is a selling opportunity. It appears a blow-off occurred on 12/05/01 and the stock market is once again turning lower. I am only interested in selling at this point.
S&P 500 (December futures) - (12/12/01) I am looking for a possible acceleration to the current decline, with the Dec S & P moving to 1092 no later than 12/21/01.
U.S. Treasury Bonds (Daily Continuation) - (12/12/01) The dramatic decline in T-bonds occurred at 8 times the average velocity of the previous major up-trend. This is a very rare "event" on a daily bar chart, and usually indicates the end of a major uptrend. Notice that the price hit the 50% retracement of 100.23 on the targeted date 12/11/01. Once the price crosses the 8X AV line a sharp upward reaction should be expected ..with a significant improvement in trader's psychology.
U.S. Treasury Bonds (Continuation 30 minute bars) - (12/06/01) The hard sell-off occurred at 4 times the average velocity of the last upward significant trending move, and hit the 100% retracement point in both price and time. The market is still showing excessive weakness and needs more sideways movement (consolidation) before rallying from the current area. Look at the projected time frames on the chart below for further timing clues. Also, on the 5 minute chart below an important time frame to watch is 07:25am (101.22 area) on Friday 12/07 (which is in the unemployment report time frame). I'm interested in buying in the current price range over the next day or so.
U.S. Treasury Bonds (Continuation 30 minute bars) - (12/10/01) The market made a short-term low in the 10:50am time frame on 12/07. The time period to watch is the 9:20am period on 12/10. Watch how the price action develops from here to the "2X AV", when the price cross this speed line and the 32 bar (green) moving average, I would expect to see an upward reaction. The more important time frame will be on 12/11/01 see daily chart above.
U.S. Treasury Bonds (Continuation 30 minute bars) - (12/11/01)
U.S. Treasury Bonds (March 5 minute bars) - (12/06/01) We could be getting close to a major upturn, perhaps around 07:25am on Friday 12/07/01! Look how the price action develops on the three charts below.
U.S. Treasury Bonds (March 5 minute bars) - (12/06/01) See how the price action has coiled up as it moves toward the projected target of 101.22 at 07:25am on Friday 12/07/01! A strong rally up through 101.22 after 07:25am could signal the next up move.
U.S. Treasury Bonds (March 5 minute bars) - (12/07/01)
