NY GOLD (DAILY CONTINUATION) - (01/09/08)
This chart is a trend projection in progress.
NY GOLD (DAILY CONTINUATION) - (07/17/08)
And, here is how the projection turned out.
NY GOLD (DAILY AUGUST) - (07/17/08)
US DOLLAR INDEX (60 MINUTE CONTINUATION) - (12/27/07)
US DOLLAR INDEX (60 MINUTE CONTINUATION) - (12/31/07)
US DOLLAR INDEX (60 MINUTE CONTINUATION) - (01/04/08)
US DOLLAR INDEX (60 MINUTE CONTINUATION) - (01/07/08)
US DOLLAR INDEX (60 MINUTE CONTINUATION) - (01/09/08)
EUROCURRENCY (DAILY CONTINUATION) - (01/04/08)
US DOLLAR INDEX (WEEKLY CONTINUATION) - (12/31/07)
US DOLLAR INDEX (60 MINUTE CONTINUATION) - (01/04/08)
US DOLLAR INDEX (60 MINUTE CONTINUATION) - (12/31/07)
US DOLLAR INDEX (WEEKLY CONTINUATION) - (09/25/07)
US DOLLAR INDEX (DAILY CONTINUATION) - (09/27/07)
US DOLLAR INDEX (DAILY CONTINUATION) - (07/12/07)
US DOLLAR INDEX (DAILY CONTINUATION) - (06/05/07)
NY GOLD (AUGUST 60 MINUTE BARS) - (06/18/07)
NY GOLD (AUGUST 60 MINUTE BARS) - (06/22/07)
S & P 500 (DAILY CONTINUATION) - (06/15/07)
NY SILVER (DAILY CONTINUATION) - (06/14/07)
NY SILVER (DAILY CONTINUATION) - (06/12/07)
NY GOLD (AUGUST DAILY) - (06/06/07)
NY GOLD (AUGUST DAILY) - (06/08/07)
JAPANESE YEN (DAILY CONTINUATION) - (03/05/07)
JAPANESE YEN (WEEKLY CONTINUATION) - (03/05/07)
JAPANESE YEN (WEEKLY CONTINUATION) - (02/14/07)
CANADIAN DOLLAR (DAILY CONTINUATION) - (01/25/07)
U.S. DOLLAR INDEX (DAILY CONTINUATION) - (01/04/07)
JAPANESE YEN (WEEKLY CONTINUATION) - (01/03/07)
NY GOLD (DAILY JUNE FUTURES) - (01/03/07)
NY GOLD (DAILY CONTINUATION) - (01/02/07)
NY GOLD (DAILY JUNE) - (12/21/06)
NY SILVER (DAILY MARCH) - (01/02/07)
CANADIAN DOLLAR (WEEKLY CONTINUATION) - (12/13/06)
CANADIAN DOLLAR (DAILY CONTINUATION) - (12/12/06)
JAPANESE YEN (DAILY CONTINUATION) - (12/11/06)
NY GOLD (DAILY CONTINUATION) - (12/08/06)
JAPANESE YEN (WEEKLY CONTINUATION) - (10/10/06)
NY GOLD (WEEKLY CONTINUATION) - (10/09/06)
U.S. DOLLAR INDEX (DAILY CONTINUATION) - (10/06/06 @ CLOSE)
EUROCURRENCY (DAILY CONTINUATION) - (05/31/06)
NY GOLD (WEEKLY CONTINUATION) - (08/24/06)
NY GOLD (DAILY CONTINUATION) - (08/24/06)
NY GOLD (DAILY CONTINUATION) - (06/07/06)
NY GOLD (DAILY CONTINUATION) - (06/07/06)
NY GOLD (WEEKLY CONTINUATION) - (06/07/06)
NY GOLD (DAILY CONTINUATION) - (06/01/06)
NY GOLD (DAILY CONTINUATION) - (05/23/06)
JAPANESE YEN (60 MINUTE BARS JUNE CONTRACT) - (05/23/06)
JAPANESE YEN (60 MINUTE BARS JUNE CONTRACT) - (05/19/06)
JAPANESE YEN (60 MINUTE BARS JUNE CONTRACT) - (05/17/06)
JAPANESE YEN (DAILY CONTINUATION) - (05/16/06)
JAPANESE YEN (DAILY CONTINUATION) - (05/17/06)
JAPANESE YEN 30 YEARS SEASONAL PRICE PATTERN
BY PERMISSION OF MOORE RESEARCH CENTER INC. WWW.MRCI.COM
U.S. DOLLAR INDEX (DAILY CONTINUATION) - (05/16/06)
JAPANESE YEN (WEEKLY CONTINUATION) - (05/10/06)
NY GOLD (JUNE DAILY) - (05/09/06)
EURODOLLARS (WEEKLY CONTINUATION) - (05/05/06)
U.S. DOLLAR INDEX (DAILY CONTINUATION) - (04/29/06)
U.S. DOLLAR INDEX (DAILY CONTINUATION) - (04/28/06)
JAPANESE YEN (DAILY CONTINUATION) - (04/29/06)
JAPANESE YEN (WEEKLY CONTINUATION) - (04/25/06)
NY COPPER (DAILY CONTINUATION) - (04/26/06)
NY GOLD (DAILY CONTINUATION) - (04/19/06)
NY COPPER (DAILY CONTINUATION) - (04/18/06)
NY GOLD (DAILY CONTINUATION) - (04/10/06)
JAPANESE YEN (60 MINUTE CONTINUATION) - (04/12/06 @ 6:30AM)
U.S. DOLLAR INDEX (DAILY CONTINUATION) - (04/04/06)
JAPANESE YEN (DAILY CONTINUATION) - (04/04/06)
JAPANESE YEN (WEEKLY CONTINUATION) - (04/07/06)
JAPANESE YEN (DAILY CONTINUATION) - (04/02/06)
JAPANESE YEN (WEEKLY CONTINUATION) - (03/31/06)
NY GOLD (DAILY CONTINUATION) - (03/31/06)
U.S. DOLLAR INDEX (DAILY CONTINUATION) - (03/28/06)
U.S. DOLLAR INDEX (DAILY CONTINUATION) - (03/29/06)
U.S. DOLLAR INDEX (DAILY CONTINUATION) - (03/29/06)
NY GOLD (DAILY CONTINUATION) - (03/23/06)
U.S. DOLLAR INDEX (WEEKLY CONTINUATION) - (03/20/06)
U.S. DOLLAR INDEX (DAILY CONTINUATION) - (03/20/06)
EUROCURRENCY (DAILY CONTINUATION) - (02/25/06)
U.S. DOLLAR (60 MINUTE BARS CONTINUATION) - (12/15/05)
JAPANESE YEN (DAILY CONTINUATION) - (12/14/05)
JAPANESE YEN (60 MINUTE BARS CONTINUATION) - (12/08/05)
JAPANESE YEN (DAILY CONTINUATION) - (12/07/05)
JAPANESE YEN (DAILY CONTINUATION) - (12/01/05)
U.S. DOLLAR INDEX (DAILY CONTINUATION) - (11/14/05)
U.S. DOLLAR INDEX (DAILY CONTINUATION) - (11/14/05)
NY GOLD (DAILY CONTINUATION) - (11/14/05)
JAPANESE YEN (DAILY CONTINUATION) - (11/14/05)
EUROCURRENCY (WEEKLY CONTINUATION) - (11/16/05)
U.S. DOLLAR INDEX (DAILY CONTINUATION) - (10/31/05)
U.S. DOLLAR INDEX (DAILY CONTINUATION) - (10/19/05)
NY GOLD (DAILY CONTINUATION) - (10/19/05)
JAPANESE YEN (WEEKLY CONTINUATION) - (10/11/05)
U.S. DOLLAR INDEX (DAILY CONTINUATION) - (10/03/05)
NY SILVER (DECEMBER DAILY) - (10/07/05)
NY GOLD (DAILY CONTINUATION) - (10/07/05) The gold prices reached an important objective area today. Below this chart I posted the same chart only updated through 08/11/05 which had a price objective of 479.00 for 10/07/05. Interestingly, today's high was 479.10.
NY GOLD (DAILY CONTINUATION) - (08/11/05)
NY GOLD (WEEKLY CONTINUATION) - (09/07/05)
U.S. DOLLAR INDEX (DAILY CONTINUATION) - (08/12/05)
U.S. DOLLAR INDEX (WEEKLY CONTINUATION) - (07/11/05)
U.S. DOLLAR INDEX (DAILY CONTINUATION) - (06/23/05)
U.S. DOLLAR INDEX (DAILY CONTINUATION) - (07/11/05)
BRITISH POUND (WEEKLY CONTINUATION) - (07/07/05)
JAPANESE YEN (DAILY CONTINUATION) - (07/08/05)
NY SILVER (DAILY DECEMBER) - (07/13/05)
JAPANESE YEN (60 MINUTE CONTINUATION) - (06/30/05)
JAPANESE YEN (DAILY CONTINUATION) - (06/28/05)
U.S. DOLLAR INDEX (60 MINUTE CONTINUATION) - (05/24/05)
NY GOLD (DAILY CONTINUATION) - (05/19/05)
NY COPPER (JULY 60 MINUTE BARS) - (05/27/05)
U.S. DOLLAR INDEX (DAILY CONTINUATION) - (03/29/05) U.S. dollar updated. The recent rise in interest rates has triggered a dollar rally from an oversold condition. Seasonally, the dollar has the strongest rally of the year in the first quarter, then loses upward momentum during the second quarter followed by an extended decline into the end of the year. We seem to be (weakly) following this pattern. I expect a significant pattern change around 06/20/05, it will probably be a decline which takes the dollar below 80.14 and then below 78.00 as the economy weakens going into 2006.
Current resistance is at 85.30 and 86.10.
US DOLLAR INDEX (DAILY CONTINUATION) - (01/14/05)
EUROCURRENCY (DAILY CONTINUATION) - (02/14/05)
U.S. DOLLAR INDEX (WEEKLY CONTINUATION) - (02/12/05)
U.S. DOLLAR INDEX (DAILY CONTINUATION) - (02/06/05)
U.S. DOLLAR INDEX (DAILY CONTINUATION) - (01/24/05) The Dollar seasonally rises from early January into April, but the current price action still appears weak ..a rally in a bear market. Concern surrounding the Iraq election/terrorist acts is weighing on the dollar. Perhaps stronger price action will enter the Dollar in early February.
EUROCURRENCY (DAILY CONTINUATION) - (02/08/05)
NY GOLD (WEEKLY CONTINUATION) - (02/01/05) -
NY GOLD (DAILY CONTINUATION) - (01/25/05) -
EUROCURRENCY (DAILY CONTINUATION) - (01/25/05)
EUROCURRENCY (DAILY CONTINUATION) - (01/14/05)
JAPANESE YEN (60 MINUTES MARCH CONTRACT) - (01/14/05) -
CANADIAN DOLLAR (DAILY CONTINUATION) - (01/10/05) -
NY GOLD (DAILY CONTINUATION) - (01/08/05) - Gold update. ..heading into the soup! ..I would expect some support in front of the Iraq election on January 30th, then probably a continued liquidation of speculative longs into the 403 to 413 area. The US Dollar will likely continue to rally into the spring.
NY GOLD (DAILY CONTINUATION) - (01/08/05) -
US DOLLAR INDEX (DAILY CONTINUATION) - (01/04/05)
NY GOLD (DAILY CONTINUATION) - (01/04/05) -
US DOLLAR INDEX (DAILY CONTINUATION) - (12/03/04) -
US DOLLAR INDEX (DAILY CONTINUATION) - (11/18/04) -
US DOLLAR INDEX (DAILY CONTINUATION) - (10/15/04)
NY GOLD (WEEKLY CONTINUATION) - (12/03/04)
NY GOLD (WEEKLY CONTINUATION) - (10/15/04)
EUROCURRENCY (DAILY CONTINUATION) - (11/18/04) - Lehman Bros. forecasts the dollar will decline to 132.00 in 12 months. Based on a simple channel lines the 132.00 crosses the center channel line on 12/09/04 and the price action is following that path. Also, when currencies get a sense of direction (or credible targets) they get up and go!
JAPANESE YEN (DAILY CONTINUATION) - (12/03/04) -
JAPANESE YEN (DAILY CONTINUATION) - (10/22/04) - Lehman Bros. forecasts the dollar will decline to 105 yen in three months and 99 yen in 12 months. Swing measurement projects .9670 on 11/15/04.
10/20/04 - Japanese yen has broken out to the upside (new 7 month highs) and the fundamentals are overwhelmingly negative for the dollar. It looks like the J-yen could have a move up to .9500 to .9700 ..pretty quickly! call for recommendations
CANADIAN DOLLARS (DAILY CONTINUATION) - (12/03/04)
SWISS FRANC (DAILY CONTINUATION) - (10/12/04)
US DOLLAR INDEX (EXCEL SPREADSHEET) - (09/14/04)
US DOLLAR INDEX (WEEKLY CONTINUATION) - commentary coming.
US DOLLAR INDEX (WEEKLY CONTINUATION) - commentary coming.
US DOLLAR INDEX (EXCEL SPREADSHEET) - commentary coming.
NY GOLD (WEEKLY CONTINUATION) - (02/18/04) Gold has broken from the "double speedline" and dropped to 390.00 before rebounding to significant resistance at 417.60. The upward trend appears to be interrupted and a new price pattern is developing. A sell-off could break the price down to 397.40 support, or possible down to 383.60. A close over 417.60 would drive the price towards the objective of 448.20 on 03/12/04. If you are buying at these levels use stop-loss orders. Sideways movement in the US dollar could trigger a correction in gold. Seasonally, the demand for physical gold drops off in late January and continues weak into the end of March.
NY COPPER (DAILY CONTINUATION) - (02/03/04) Copper prices are moving up a parabolic curve (an accelerating speed), when the price goes "vertical" it is usually the last stage of the upmove. Also, based on the long-term speed model the next important upside target is 124.73 on 02/27/04. That might be a spot for some shorts or put options for an intermediate decline. ..good luck.
EUROCURRENCY (DAILY CONTINUATION) - (01/26/04) Beginning of a significant correction! The central banks are talking are talking about Dollar intervention and the markets are listening. After several weeks of a rising Eurocurrency without a meaningful downward correction, the fear of intervention is now triggering the much needed retracement. A major buy opportunity should set-up between 1.2108 (02/10/04) to 1.1933 (02/17/04). It should then be a time to re-enter gold and silver also.
NY GOLD (DAILY CONTINUATION) - (01/26/04) Talk about central bank intervention has triggered some profit taking in the currencies and metals. Gold is acting overbought and is set-up for a $10 to $20 sell-off. Downside support comes in at 420.3, 412.6, 407.5 (33.3%), 404.5, 397.3 (50%), and 390.0 (61.8%).
NY SILVER (DAILY CONTINUATION) - (01/26/04) Silver is likely to sell-off if gold break from here. Silver trading tends to be hot money and if the direction comes into doubt then it's a race to see who gets out first. A close below 6.21 would probably trigger liquidation, bringing silver prices down to 5.72 to 5.95 area. Watch for end of month selling too! Support levels come in at 6.217, 6.053 (33.3%), 5.949, 5.724 (50%), and 5.491 (61.8%).
NY COPPER (DAILY CONTINUATION) - (01/26/04) Copper has reached an important upside price objective of 113.00. I would expect some consolidation and profit taking at the current price levels. Look for downside support at 106.90, 104.90, 103.70, and 100.80. Copper has a strong seasonal upmove from mid-February to early March. A potential buy opportunity may set-up if the price corrects here.
JAPANESE YEN (DAILY CONTINUATION) - (01/22/04) The yen price action is returning to the equi-angle speedline which means that the current yen rise is occurring at the same speed as the longer-term decline from 1999 to 2002. The next upside objective is 0.9999 on 07/12/04.
US DOLLAR INDEX (DAILY CONTINUATION) - (01/06/04) The Dollar Index is dropping with 1.5 times the average velocity of the last significant decline. The downside target is 82.88 on 02/16/04 and the price action is on track. There is the potential for a major upward correction in the dollar at that time. Several major turns have occurred in the past during the month of February.
US DOLLAR INDEX (CONTINUATION) - (01/08/04) The major low used in this model began was on 04/19/1995 at 80.14 and peak used was on 01/28/2002 at 120.80. At the bottom of the spreadsheet below, the yellow cell with 85.82 in it represents where the dollar index should be if it is traveling at three times the speed of the overall move of 1994 to 2002. That is precisely where it is at. If the dollar continues down this path the next important date to watch is 01/20/04 at 85.22 for a possible pattern change. The projected target for this move is 80.14 on 05/02/04.
01/14/04 - EUROCURRENCY DAILY SPREADSHEET (MARCH 2003) The Eurocurrency was overbought 20 out of the last 21 days on an intermediate-term basis, which indicates extreme strength ..but also vulnerability to a sharp corrective sell-off. I'm looking for a more significant price decline going into February.
NY GOLD (DAILY CONTINUATION) - (01/05/04) Gold has completed an intermediate objective of 419.20 and has broken out to the upside. Whether this continues to move higher depends on the weakness in the US dollar. Remember gold usually has emotional tops, see the weekly chart below for the next longer-term price projection. The gold price seem to be ahead of itself!
NY GOLD (WEEKLY CONTINUATION) - (01/05/04) Gold is moving up the "double speedline" toward the 448.20 objective due on 03/12/04. A more rapid rise to that objective could signal a blow-off top. If you are buying at these levels use stop-loss orders. Sideways movement in the US dollar (it's oversold) could trigger a correction in gold. Seasonally, the demand for physical gold drops off in late January and continues weak into the end of March.
NY SILVER (DAILY CONTINUATION) - (01/05/04) Silver has reached it's intermediate objective of 5.95 due on 01/05/04, interesting enough the silver market gapped sharply higher today and closed 6.24oz. This upward break-out indicates that silver is responding to longer-term dynamics (7.50oz. top on 02/06/98). Both on the daily and weekly charts the price action is overbought which indicates strength and vulnerability. Use stop-loss orders.
NY SILVER (WEEKLY CONTINUATION) - (01/05/04) The next resistance levels above the market are 6.334, 6.627, and 7.062. Support levels are 6.167 and 5.756. Interesting point the week of 02/06/98 the low in silver was 6.115 and the high was 7.50! The next important date is 03/26/04 perhaps we'll see 7.50 by then. Like gold both the daily and weekly charts are overbought and vulnerable ..use stop-loss orders.
10/13/03 - Updated: NY GOLD daily chart.
10/13/03 - Updated: NY SILVER daily chart.
10/08/03 - I've updated the EuroCurrency, upside objective is 119.25 (10/23/03), the downside objective in the US dollar is 90.50 (10/24/03). Also, 10/23/03 is an important cycle date in the S & P 500. I'm Looking for potential pattern change after October 23rd or 24th. Charts are inside. CFOS Research.
NY GOLD (DAILY CONTINUATION) - (10/24/03) Gold appears to be setting up for a potential blow-off over $400. A strong Monday rally could trigger it.
JAPANESE YEN (DAILY CONTINUATION) - (10/24/03) Important price/time juncture (0.9131 on 10/27/03). An intermediate top could develop in the current area. If not, 0.9347 on 12/30/03 is the next target.
EUROCURRENCY (DAILY CONTINUATION) - (10/24/03) Important price/time juncture (119.25 on 10/23/03). An intermediate top could develop in that area.
US DOLLAR INDEX (DAILY CONTINUATION) - (10/24/03) Dollar is in an oversold area ..I'm looking for a potential upward correction soon.
EUROCURRENCY (DAILY CONTINUATION) - (10/08/03) Important price/time juncture coming up (119.25 on 10/23/03)! Look for wide price flucuations with heavy volume in that area. It could be an intermediate top. ..higher later.
JAPANESE YEN (DAILY CONTINUATION) - (09/29/03) The US dollar is so weak even the Japanese yen is going up! If the ramifications of what is going on were not so serious ..you'd have to laugh at the folly. It makes me want to own gold.
US DOLLAR INDEX (DAILY CONTINUATION) - (09/29/03) The Dollar is heading towards the long-term double speedline, which is twice the speed of the overall rise from 04/19/95 to 07/05/01. Important price/time juncture is 90.50 on 10/24/03. ..There may be some support or consolidation in that area. Also, 10/24/03 is a day after an important cycle date in the S&P 500 10/23/03 (see S&P daily continuation chart below).
LONG-TERM SWISS FRANC PROJECTION - This chart comes from Steve Saville at speculative-investor.com. It projects a continued rise in the Swiss franc against the US dollar into 2008 to 2010 with a top of the channel price target of 1.05 to 1.10. ..Longer-term fundamentals seem to support these projections.
JAPANESE YEN (DAILY CONTINUATION) - (10/07/03)
10/03/03 @ CLOSE - Updated: NY GOLD 30 MINUTE chart.
10/03/03 @ 11:10AM - Updated: NY SILVER 30 MINUTE chart.
10/03/03 @ 11:00AM - Updated: NY SILVER 30 MINUTE chart.
NY COPPER (DAILY CONTINUATION) - (10/01/03) Copper is often considered a leading economic indicator. As the economy expands there is more demand for industrial commodities (like copper) which is reflected in their prices being bid higher. The higher highs and higher lows on the copper chart below is a healthy economic sign. Also, if you were a commerical user of copper and you thought prices going to rise further, you'd probably want to inventory extra copper for future production.
NY SILVER (DAILY CONTINUATION) - (10/01/03) Silver has been rallying since July 2003 in sympathy with gold. When gold begins consolidating the silver weakens significantly. Silver has been called "the poor man's gold" ..so when the public becomes poor enough from rising Walmart prices (as an example), and it becomes "trendy" for magazines to feature inflation stories ..then silver in the $20s seems possible to me. According to a MRCI.COM seasonal study, silver has sold off in the month of October an average of 19.3 cent, 14 out of the last 15 years or 93% of the time.
NY GOLD (DAILY CONTINUATION) - (09/30/03) Gold is in a classic bull market. The declining US dollar and extreme debt to GDP around the world is driving wealth out of paper into gold and hard assets. ..as has occurred for thousands of years.
09/22/03 - Updated: JAPANESE YEN daily chart.
08/27/03 - NY GOLD (DAILY CONTINUATION) -Click Here. Gold has broken out of a symetrical triangle to the upside. The short-term price target for this rally is 378.90, then 394.40, the 8/29 to 9/01 timeframes are important.
08/25/03 - EUROCURRENCY -Click Here. EuroFX is closing in on the swing objective and beginning to approach the longer-term retracement window.
08/25/03 - US DOLLAR INDEX -Click Here. This US dollar seasonal chart was produced by Moore Research Center Inc. (MRCI.COM). It shows the Dollar (since 1971) usually declining into October from a high in July. What is occuring this year is a counter-seasonal move, with perhaps(?) a top developing in the Sept/Oct period instead of a low.
08/09/03 - SILVER (Daily Continuation) -Click Here. Silver has run into resistance at the 5.21 area (61.8%), ..it cycle back down into the 4.65 to 4.75 area.
08/09/03 - GOLD (30 minute chart) -Click Here. Gold is at an important juncture and could sell-off from here.
08/09/03 - GOLD (Weekly Continuation) -Click Here. Gold on the weekly chart is showing longer-term strength relative to the retracement model, but there seems to be heavy resistance overhead and the retracement window going into November.
07/29/03 - EUROCURRENCY (DAILY CONTINUATION) Look for bottoming action in the Eurocurrency in late August or into September. ..Good look'n projections ..see the chart! Click Here.
07/28/03 - Updated: US Dollar Index - 30 minute bars - Dollar is in an important area ..a break below 94.95 could accelerate the Dollar lower. ..it needs a bounce in here.
07/26/03 - NY Gold Click Here.
07/22/03 - US Dollar Index - 30 Minute Chart Click Here.
US DOLLAR INDEX (DAILY CONTINUATION) - (07/08/03) The Dollar rally is finding more believers and the choir is singing "we can do it one more time", ..wait for the ample lady to do her thing! The Dollar is in a multi-year bear market (downside objective 50.00 to 60.00), but this rally take several weeks to play out. The next leg down could be a screamer.
US DOLLAR INDEX (DAILY CONTINUATION) - (06/26/03)
EUROCURRENCY (DAILY CONTINUATION) - (07/04/03) The Eurocurreny has declined to an important speedline and the next price/date to watch is 1.1510 on 07/08/03. A break below the speedline (on the chart below) could change the Euro psychology to more negative ..Dollar stronger. A rally up from here would likely mean a more negative attitude toward US markets, ..wait to see.
EUROCURRENCY (DAILY CONTINUATION) - (06/24/03)
US DOLLAR INDEX (DAILY CONTINUATION) - (06/23/03)
NY GOLD (WEEKLY CONTINUATION) - (06/24/03)
NY GOLD (DAILY CONTINUATION) - (06/23/03)
06/11/03 - Updated: Daily Gold Continuation Chart.
b>05/28/03 - Updated: NY Gold - An intermediate-term top??
05/28/03 - Updated: US Dollar Index - Oversold, a shift into a broad sideways consolidation.
NY PLATINUM (DAILY CONTINUATION) - (05/27/03) Platinum is rallying back after a significant high was made at 707.00 on 03/10/03. This current rally could develop into a potential short trade, if it sells off below the 1X AV line without making new highs. The seasonal and correlation chart below, also tends to indicate a sell-off could begin in June.
Recommended: an article entitled, "Asia, its reserves and the coming dollar crisis". Link
05/22/03 - Updated: EuroFx daily chart.
NY GOLD (WEEKLY CONTINUATION) - (05/19/03) Strong international and speculative demand is pushing gold into the "FROTHY ZONE", this is where emotions start to overwhelm the intellect. With all this deflationary talk ..am I missing something?? Yes, I know the Dollar is going down, and I do believe over time gold will discount a world full of paper, but not all at once! When you're REALLY excited about gold ..sell it! In the $370's would be a great area, then buy a cigar and take your wife (husband) out to dinner. Look to buy gold back in the mid-$330's during the dog days of summer (mid-August).
US DOLLAR INDEX (DAILY CONTINUATION) - (05/19/03) The Dollar drop is gaining downward momentum and attention by everyone. The next major support comes in at 90.50 to 90.76 and consolidation should occur in that area. Above the market there is also an important time/price junture at 95.92 on 06/04/03 (same date as the EuroFX). The intense pressure on the Dollar is creating a crisis environment (as per gold, bonds making new highs and stocks turning lower!) look for a potential intermediate bottom to form over the next few weeks. An opportunity could start to develop, but it's too dangerous to trade now. The unemployment number on 06/06/03 may be the trigger.
EUROCURRENCY (DAILY CONTINUATION) - (05/12/03) The EuroFX is heading up the "double speedline" towards the objective of 118.36 on 06/04/03. There should be a very significant downward correction whenever the price crosses below this double speedline. ..it's a ways off.
05/01/03 - EuroCurrency has "broken-out" above the previous high of 1.1042 on 03/11/03. The date 04/29/03 has turned into an cycle low date and the EuroFx has moved back up to the "2x speed-line". Upside objective (at this speed) is 1.1839 on 06/04/03. Daily EuroCurrency Chart. The Canadian Dollar has broken above its previous important high of .6992 on 01/28/00 Weekly Canadian Dollar Chart.
US DOLLAR INDEX (DAILY CONTINUATION) - (04/14/03) The US dollar is likely to move into a period of sideways consolidation. This could last for several weeks or even months. I'm treating the dollar as being in a broad trading range market. The US economic problems will probably be masked with growing inflation and usual deniel.
The major 18 and 108 year Monetary Crisis Cycle is due to occur in 2003, possibly in February or the September to November period. ..read all about it.
US DOLLAR INDEX (DAILY CONTINUATION) - (03/25/03)
The Dollar is still in a bearish mode (lower lows and lower highs) ..the war factor is an unknown ..so wait and watch.
US DOLLAR INDEX (DAILY CONTINUATION) - (03/18/03)
EUROCURRENCY (DAILY CONTINUATION) - (03/18/03)
US DOLLAR INDEX (DAILY CONTINUATION) - (03/06/03)
SWISS FRANC (DAILY CONTINUATION) - (03/06/03)
EUROCURRENCY (DAILY CONTINUATION) - (03/06/03)
NY GOLD (DAILY APRIL FUTURES) - (02/25/03) Look for a potential double bottom at 343.20 on 02/28/03. More importantly, the intense decline at eight times the average velocity of the overall rise is a rare "speed" characteristic ..and indicates an intermediate top in gold.
US DOLLAR INDEX (DAILY CONTINUATION) - (02/25/03) The Dollar is consolidating "setting up" for another move ..and the trend is clearly down ..too dangerous to trade with war looming.
The Foundation for the Study of Cycles published an article in November 1989 written by Martin A. Armstrong (a superb global analyst) titled , "The Monetary Crisis Cycle". He has tracked the 18 and 108 year monetary cycles back several centuries and the cycles have been proven to be quite reliable. These cycles would indicate a potential for a major shift in capital flows and a tremendous flux in global currency values in 2003. My guess would be the big "flux" would be a big decline in the US Dollar with foreign investors wanting to sell their greenbacks ..for maybe gold, or anything else not nailed down. Anyway, I can send out a copy of the article to anyone who cares to read it.
JAPANESE YEN (DAILY CONTINUATION) - (02/14/03)
NY GOLD (30 MINUTE BARS CONTINUATION) - (02/14/03)
NY GOLD (DAILY CONTINUATION) - (02/12/03)
10YR. US DOLLAR INDEX (DAILY CONTINUATION) - (02/11/03)
B>NY GOLD (30 MINUTE CONTINUATION) - (02/10/03) I am looking for a spot to buy again this week.
JAPANESE YEN (WEEKLY CONTINUATION) - (02/14/03)
US DOLLAR INDEX (DAILY CONTINUATION) - (02/08/03)
NY GOLD (30 MINUTE CONTINUATION) - (02/05/03) Gold has been moving up at an accelerating rate in a "blow-off" fashion and is setting up for a sharp downward correction. The upward short-term trend objective is 387.10 over the next couple of days. If a sharp reaction occurs from this objective, then look for support at 368 to 372.
US DOLLAR INDEX (DAILY CONTINUATION) - (02/05/03) The US Dollar is consolidating in an oversold condition, the downward bias is obvious ..use sharp rallies to short. Resistance is at 100.77 to 100.97, and then, 102.43. Support comes in at 98.40 (target date is 03/26/03), the next longer-term objective is 95.92 due on 05/30/03.
SWISS FRANC (DAILY CONTINUATION) - (01/30/03) The franc is headed for it's "Asian Crisis" high of .7920 on 10/08/98; the basic trending model projects a high of .7856 on 05/16/03, ..and the franc is right on track. The ultimate safe haven is to have an ocean on both sides of you!!
US DOLLAR INDEX (30 MINUTE BARS) - (01/30/03) The Dollar is experiencing some short-covering which will likely be short-lived. I am watching for resistance to build next week, possibly in the 101.33 (25%) area, but preferrably in the 102.05 (33.3%) to 102.48 (38.2%) area. I'm looking for a spot to sell the Dollar again.
NY SILVER (Daily Continuation) - (01/29/03) Silver is coming up to an important juncture, the mid-point of the upwardly projected trend "speed" line at 4.852 on 01/30/03. Also, a weekly close over 4.89 would be needed to confirm that the up-trend is still continuing without an immediate correction into the 02/19/03 time frame. I got out in the 4.85 to 4.86 area today. Thank you very much.
NY GOLD (Weekly Continuation) - (01/25/03) Gold is an emotional market ..it always has been in bull markets! It appears to be entering an accelerated INTERMEDIATE STAGE blow-off. I am using this price rise to take scale-out profits to the $377oz. area. The Iraq tensions will ease at some point ..probably sooner than later, and Gold will experience an intense sell-off (330 to 340 area). The longer-term trend will probably move gold well over $400oz., but remember when you "feel" you must own it, ..it's usually the time to sell it!
US DOLLAR INDEX (Daily Continuation) - (01/10/03) - The US Dollar Index is now declining at twice the speed of the overall long-term rise from a low on 04/19/95 at 80.92 to the high on 07/05/01 at 121.29. Using the lows of 1994-1995 in the financial markets is where the most accurate timing measurements are coming from. Seasonally, the dollar rallies during January ..the current weakness reflects how negative the price action really is.
I'm only a seller!
US DOLLAR INDEX (Daily Continuation) - (01/17/03) - As referenced on the chart above, the US Dollar Index has now reached the 100.77 target. If it continues to decline at twice the speed of the overall long-term rise, then the next objective would be 95.92 on 06/02/03 longer-term. It is possible to see some temporary consolidation in the currrent area (100.77), even a rally up to 102.43 but I would not bet on it! ..it's a multi-year bear market.
NY GOLD (Daily Continuation) - (01/10/03) The swing objective of 356.50 matches up nicely with the longer-term upward 61.8% retracement of 355.80. We are seeing some price consolidation now, which is a positive development for a further rise. There has been no blow-off price action as of yet, and a weekly close above this area could signal a move to the 373 to 378 area.
NY GOLD (Weekly Continuation) - (01/10/03)
When the Iraq crisis appears headed towards resolution and the energy markets sell-off, a correction to 317 to 332 would seem quite possible and would represent an excellent buying opportunity, ..the primary strength in gold comes from the declining US dollar (a multi-year trend). A break out above the 363.60 area could extend this rally to the 377.20 area in the short run. If 377.20 is reached by 03/14/03 (or before), then 417.50 on 11/07/03 becomes the next objective.
NY SILVER (Weekly Continuation) - (01/10/03) With the bull market in gold many silver traders are wondering if silver will have a run up too. I think silver absolutely will, ..and it may be just starting now! With gold holding over $350oz. and the US dollar continues to make new lows, it's too irresistible not to own it. See the daily silver chart below.
NY SILVER (Daily Continuation) - (01/10/03) What has been absent in the metals markets has been the small US investor ..who is primarily up to his neck in platinum and gold CREDIT CARDS!! I expect silver to become fashionable again when the price rises above $5.25oz., which should happen by 02/19/03. Silver dollar necklaces?? ..Hmmm. The chart below shows silver's weakness relative to the 1X AV SPEED LINE, crossing this line in the second half of February should greatly improve the psychology. When that occurs you will hear about the silver bull on CNBC. ..Then a quick run to $6.17oz.. We shall see.
JAPANESE YEN (Weekly Continuation) - (01/10/03) Now there is an interesting chart! The long-term downtrend line going back to the 04/19/95 top is finally being tested at historically low price levels. And, there is a clear inverted "head and shoulders" formation which the market may just now being completed (a classic combination). A major buy opportunity appears to be developing! The Japanese government (hold your nose) is making moves to re-inflate their economy and the public has 12 years of pent up consumption to satisfy. An upside objective would be .9300 to .9700. It smells like money!
EUROCURRENCY (Quattro Spreadsheet) - (01/10/03) "If" the EuroFX had been trading in 1995, then a major high would have been calculated at 135.56 on 04/17/95. The revelant date here is 01/20/03 for either a potential reversal in direction or more likely an intensifing negative psychology toward the US dollar and a positive for the EuroFX. Also, I am looking at the 109.53 area as a realistic upside target, perhaps longer-term 115.67 ..as per the spreadsheet.
EUROCURRENCY (Daily Continuation) - (01/10/03) The EuroFX is on track for a swing objective of 1.0872 on 02/05/03 to 1.1223 on 03/11/03, this fits nicely with other measurements. I am only a buyer of EuroFX.
SWISS FRANC (Daily Continuation) - (01/10/03) This market clearly traveling at twice the speed of it's longer-term decline and will likely reach it's next objective of .7268 on 01/27/03.
SWISS FRANC (Weekly Continuation) - (01/10/03) "If" the Swiss Franc accelerates to the upside during the week of 01/24/03, the the next upside objective is .7686 on 06/06/03 (or before). A blow-off top may occur in the .7686 area??
BRITISH POUND (Daily Continuation) - (01/22/03) The British Pound has moved above it's natural upward retracement area which is a sign of strength ..with some resistance developing in the longer-term resistance area of 1.60 to 1.62. I am looking for toppy price action in the current area. An upward break-out above this area would target this next objective of 1.646 by possibly 02/21/03. The fundamentals and seasonal pattern are turning negative for the Pound.
NY Gold (weekly continuation) - (06/05/02) The current rally in gold is rising at twice the speed of the overall decline from the high of 417.50 on 02/04/96 to the low of 255.80 on 04/02/01. The next important target to the upside is 336.70 (50%) due on 07/19/02. The weekly chart of gold appears overbought (which is a sign of longer-term strength), I would expect gold to have a hard sell-off ..if the US dollar begins to bottom out around 06/18/02 or sooner. Longer-term, I expect gold to return to 417.50 (at least), at twice the speed it would hit it on 11/07/03, at the same speed on 06/02/06. Also, 850.00/2 = 425.00.
NY Gold (weekly continuation) - (06/05/02) This chart is a closer view of the chart above. The next upside target is 336.70 (50%) due on 07/19/02. A downward price correction could take gold down to support areas at 317.60, 309.70, and even possibly to 296.30 on 07/19/02 ..although this does not seem likely at this time.
NY Gold (daily continuation) - (06/07/02) The signs of resistance are beginning to occur on the daily chart. This could be the start of an intermediate-term top. Gold prices have slightly exceeded the 100% target of 329.30 and it occurred about one month early (07/09/02) ..a sign of strength. The next important turn date is 06/13/02. I am leary of the current price action and would be very defensive about holding long positions now. If gold prices start to accelerate upward on 06/13/02 I would be inclined buy it ..with close stops. A downward sell-off could take prices into support areas at 315.00, 309.80, 307.40, 300.60, 293.90, and 291.10. I will apply the retracement model for more precise turning points, once I see that a top is in.
NY Silver (weekly continuation) - (06/05/02) The current rally in silver is rising at twice the speed of the overall decline from the high of 7.50 on 02/06/98 to the low of 4.015 on 11/23/01. The next important target to the upside is 5.175 (33.3%) due on 07/19/02. The weekly chart of silver appears overbought (which is a sign of longer-term strength), I would expect silver to have a hard sell-off ..if gold starts breaking down. Longer-term, the upward retracement window is 5.756 on 10/17/03 (at twice the speed 11/08/02) to 6.167 on 04/02/04. I am a bigger fan of gold than I am of silver.
NY Silver (weekly continuation) - (06/07/02) This chart is a closer view of the silver chart above. The next upside target is 5.175 due on 07/19/02 (33.3%), interestingly this is the same weekly date for gold, but measured differently. A downward price correction could take silver down to support areas at 4.886, 4.75 to 4.65** (just looking at previous price action), and 4.451. A hard break to 4.65 would not surprise me, if gold starts breaking. Silver is really loaded with small speculators ..long.
NY Silver (daily continuation) - (06/05/02) There is price resistance building on the daily chart. This could be the start of an intermediate-term top. SILVER IS AT AN IMPORTANT JUNCTURE RIGHT NOW!! It looks like two closes below 4.98 (50%) could trigger a hard sell-off to 4.75 or even 4.65. Be very careful if you're long. I would be a buyer around the 4.65 area (I'm guessing there is big stops in that area).
US Dollar Index (daily continuation) - (06/06/02) This chart below shows the measured uptrend from the Asian crisis low of 90.74 on 10/08/98 (the US dollar declined 8.3% in one hour in Tokyo that day ..it can move!!) to the high of 121.29 on 07/05/01. Long-term US dollar analysis is archived in files at the bottom of this page. The dollar chart that follows next will show the speedlines and harmonics that relate to the 10/08/98 low.
US Dollar Index (daily continuation) - (06/06/02) Longer-term the dollar is at an important juncture 111.08 (06/06/02) which is a 33.3% retracement in both price and time off the 1998 low to the July 2001 high. I'm expecting a significant upward reaction in this area ..just about now. The dollar has also completed an intermediate-term retracement (a little more than 100% of the previous move) by declining down it's 2X AV LINE (not labeled on the chart). This adds confidence to the idea of an upward price reversal occurring very soon. The longer-term price retracement window is 105.98 (11-15/02) to 102.38 (03-12/02), which would indicate another leg down into the winter. An interesting observation is that the dollar had broken out of it's longer-term model in the early months of 2002, which is often supportive for an earlier completion of the overall decline. And, 33.3% in price and time is a strong juncture for a very important low to occur. Longer-term, I'm really only a US dollar bear (in fact on most paper ..right now), but this is a very temping buy opportunity ..which I will take!
US Dollar Index (June daily) - (06/07/02) This shorter-term chart is updated through the close of 06/07/02. The swing measurement has a target of 109.98 on 06/18/02 and it is headed in that direction. A close above the 1X AV LINE on the chart would indicate a completion of this short-term decline. There are likely pockets of stops above 111.83 and 112.30. I'm ready to buy it on some bottoming price action.
Dollar Index Weekly Continuation Chart
From the extreme high in the Dollar Index at 164.72 on 02/25/85 to the significant low at 80.14 on 04/19/95, the Dollar Index has moved upward toward the major long-term retracement window of 122.43 on 05/14/00 to 132.41 on 07/25/01. While the initial move up off the low of 80.14 equaled the same overall speed of the long-term decline, after a sharp decline from 102.88 on 08/17/98 to a low of 90.74 on 10/08/98, the following price rise to date has returned, once again, to the rate-of-change of the steep decline from 1985 to 1995. The 122.43 price target was missed on 05/14/00, but still fits nicely between the two other price targets of 123.74 and 121.15. The first of new year should be interesting!!
Dollar Index Daily Continuation Chart
The Dollar Index should be in the last significant bull move ..heading towards ..what should be a topping area
..C=123.74 (12/29/00) and 121.15 (01/20/01). This should be a more volatile period with high volume spikes. Possibly in a currency crisis atmosphere ..confusion ..pressure for
change ..foreign money moving out? This kind of mix makes for some of the best opportunities!!
Short-term - I'm only interested in buying deep 3 to 5 day sell-offs.
Take a look at the next few pages.
Swiss Francs (nearest futures) - (11/09/01) Looks like sideways action with a quick long liquidation coming next week.
Swiss Francs 30 Minute Bars (December futures) - (11/14/01)
Dollar Index Daily Continuation Chart
On a longer-term basis, the Dollar Index is accelerating into a more parabolic pattern which tends to occur toward the end of a major move. There is an obvious 5 wave completion in the works also. The price action is conforming very well along the speedline B4 to C5 which adds credibility to the price objective of 121.15 on 01/20/01.
Until a top develops the Dollar Index should be traded from the long side ..buying into corrections.
Dollar Index Daily Continuation Chart
Here, we see the price action conforming well to an even steeper speedline. The combination of these two significant wave projections creates a window, where I suspect the top will form. As long as the price action stays above these two speedlines, then the projected price targets will remain valid.
US Dollar Index (nearest futures) - (01/26/01) The shorter-term swing measurement (shorter than the chart above) has an upside potential target area of 121.45 on 03-06-02, which comes close to 121.25 measurement on the chart above. I would expect to see some consolidation or toppyness in this area. Clearly, the Dollar is in a strong up-trend, ..don't fight it! I will be watching the momentum indicators at the bottom of the chart for the early signs of momentum loss ..but for now the upward momentum is accelerating.
Dollar Index Daily Continuation Chart - (01/12/02) I know this chart below looks complicated, but it's worth working through. The light blue "AV lines" are the long-term projected "speed-lines" derivied from the up-trend move from 90.74 on 10/08/98 to 121.29 on 07/06/01. A long-term retracement window is projected for 50% = 105.99 on 11/18/02 to 61.8% = 102.39 on 03/11/03. The green lines are a swing measurement which has a downward target of 108.47 on 03/06/02, with the mid-point at 114.21 on 01/31/02. The retracement 38.2% level comes in at 109.63.
Dollar Index Daily Continuation Chart - (01/12/02)
Dollar Index Daily Continuation Chart - (01/12/02)
US Dollar Index (daily continuation ) - (12/21/01) Starting the next up trending move. The projected swing objective of 121.45 on 01/23/02 or 02/06/02 is quite interesting. The previous significant swing high was 121.29 and (two charts down) the longer-term projected 121.80 on 02/06/02 are clustering together. Currencies tend to turn with fireworks ..I'm expecting a "crisis" type tension to intensify ..which will set-up for the next major dollar top!
US Dollar Index (nearest futures) - (11/21/01) There is a potential upside target area of 118.53 to 118.95 between 12/05/01 to 12/31/01. If toppy price action develops in that area ..it could be a quick short. Look for minor breaks to buy with close stops.
Dollar Index Daily Continuation Chart
The Dollar is acting toppy (a double top formation). I have some interest in trying to pick a short-term low once the election is decided. Longer-term, if there is a strong post election rally, then, I'm looking for a good spot to go short.
Dollar Index Daily Continuation Chart - (08/16)
Swiss Franc Daily September Contract - (08/07) The chart below shows the Swiss franc in a short-term consolidation phase. I'm expecting a short-term sell-off into the area of .5690 to .5712 projected for 08/19/00. If this sell-off occurs it could represent a good buy area for a rally into the upward retracement window .5926 10/04/01 to .6027 (10/25/01). Psychology is turning more U.S. dollar negative.
Swiss Franc Seasonal Pattern - (08/02) Looking at the chart below there is usually a short-term sell-off in the franc from early August into mid-August. This fits the chart above looking for a price decline into 08/19/01 in the price area of .5690 to .5712. This could be an excellent buy area ..for a significant seasonal rally that usually lasts into mid-October.
Swiss Franc Weekly (nearest futures) - (06/08) The Swiss Franc is in a major retracement window right now. The current sell-off appears to be heading towards a very important price/time objective of .5559 on 07/18/01. This time frames also fits the US dollar seasonal chart above! A potential bottoming pattern is forming right now! ..I want to buy it!! ..but a little more patience, I'm waiting for a little bit more evidence of basing action. I'll be buying the September futures and options ..soooon!
Swiss Franc Monthly Continuation Chart
The Swiss Franc is currently in the long-term retracement window ..the price action over the last five years has conformed nicely to the model, this conformity adds credibility to the idea of a major bottom developing over the next few months. ..See the next Swiss Franc chart for a blow-up of the ideal retracement window.
Swiss Franc Daily Continuation Chart
The Swiss Franc is currently in the major retracement window from the low .3408 (02/26/85) to the high .9038 (04/15/95). This will be very interesting price action to watch ..the currently Swiss franc is losing downward momentum ..the time frame between 12/11/00 and 01/22/01 willbe very important to watch for bottoming behavior. Usually a bottom takes several weeks to develop ..I'm waiting for the Swiss Franc to give more clues before putting on a longer-term position.
Australian Dollar Weekly Continuation Chart
Australian Dollar Daily Continuation Chart
Australian Dollar Daily Continuation Chart (11//21/00)
The price/time objective box in the chart above represents a potential bottoming opportunity ..bottoms and tops usually take weeks to develop ..I prefer to see a re-test of a previous low (like a double bottom) or other price action before calling the turn. ..Look at the two Aussie charts below which will give you a better perspective of the swing measurements.
Also, look at the Dollar Index charts because the best situation would be ..when they turn together.
Australian Dollar Daily Continuation Chart (03/27/01)
British Pound Daily Continuation Chart
Swiss Franc (September 10 minute) - (07/30)
Swiss Franc (September 10 minute) - (07/27)
Swiss Franc (September 10 minute) - (07/26)
Swiss Franc (September 10 minute) - (07/26)
Swiss Franc (September 10 minute) - (07/25)
Swiss Franc (September 10 minute) - (07/24)
Swiss Franc (September 10 minute) - (07/23)
