NY CRUDE OIL (WEEKLY CONTINUATION) - (07/16/08)
NY CRUDE OIL (DAILY CONTINUATION) - (07/16/08)
GOLDMAN SACHS COMMODITY INDEX (DAILY CONTINUATION) - (12/07/07)
GOLDMAN SACHS COMMODITY INDEX (DAILY CONTINUATION) - (07/20/07)
GOLDMAN SACHS COMMODITY INDEX (WEEKLY CONTINUATION) - (12/07/07)
GOLDMAN SACHS COMMODITY INDEX (WEEKLY CONTINUATION) - (07/20/07)
NY CRUDE OIL (DAILY CONTINUATION) - (09/27/07)
NY CRUDE OIL (OCTOBER DAILY) - (08/21/07)
NY CRUDE OIL (OCTOBER DAILY) - (08/08/07)
NY CRUDE OIL (DAILY CONTINUATION) - (07/26/07)
NY CRUDE OIL (DAILY CONTINUATION) - (07/16/07)
NY CRUDE OIL (DAILY CONTINUATION) - (07/12/07)
NY CRUDE OIL (WEEKLY CONTINUATION) - (02/16/07)
NY SUGAR (DAILY CONTINUATION) - (01/29/07)
NY CRUDE OIL (WEEKLY CONTINUATION) - (01/10/07)
GOLDMAN SACHS COMMODITY INDEX (WEEKLY CONTINUATION) - (01/04/07)
NY CRUDE OIL (WEEKLY CONTINUATION) - (01/02/07)
GOLDMAN SACHS COMMODITY INDEX (WEEKLY CONTINUATION) - (12/07/06)
NY CRUDE OIL (60 MINUTE CONTINUATION) - (10/20/06)
NY CRUDE OIL (WEEKLY CONTINUATION) - (10/20/06)
NY CRUDE OIL (DAILY CONTINUATION) - (10/03/06)
UNLEADED GAS (DAILY OCTOBER) - (08/24/06)
GOLDMAN SACHS COMMODITY INDEX (WEEKLY CONTINUATION) - (08/28/06)
GOLDMAN SACHS COMMODITY INDEX (DAILY CONTINUATION) - (05/09/06)
GOLDMAN SACHS COMMODITY INDEX (WEEKLY CONTINUATION) - (04/17/06)
GOLDMAN SACHS COMMODITY INDEX (DAILY CONTINUATION) - (04/17/06)
NY CRUDE OIL (DAILY CONTINUATION) - (04/17/06)
GOLDMAN SACHS COMMODITY INDEX (WEEKLY CONTINUATION) - (03/22/06)
GOLDMAN SACHS COMMODITY INDEX (DAILY CONTINUATION) - (03/22/06)
NY UNLEADED GAS (DAILY CONTINUATION) - (03/23/06)
GOLDMAN SACHS COMMODITY INDEX (DAILY CONTINUATION) - (12/05/05)
NY GOLD (WEEKLY CONTINUATION) - (12/01/05)
NY CRUDE OIL (60 MINUTE CONTINUATION) - (01/04/06)
NY CRUDE OIL (60 MINUTE CONTINUATION) - (11/30/05)
NY CRUDE OIL (WEEKLY CONTINUATION) - (11/11/05)
NY CRUDE OIL (60 MINUTE CONTINUATION) - (11/11/05)
COMMODITY RESEACH BUREAU (CRB) INDEX (WEEKLY CONTINUATION) - (11/01/05) One year ago, the U.S. dollar was under intense selling pressure, crude oil was at $55.00 and it appeared that a continued decline in the dollar could trigger strong foreign demand for U.S. products and commodities moving into 2005. The dollar actually bottomed at the end of 2004, yet the CRB index continued on it's projected path to the objective. ..see chart two.
COMMODITY RESEACH BUREAU (CRB) INDEX (WEEKLY CONTINUATION) - (11/01/05) After reaching the end of a historically significant run, the CRB Index appears to be at the early stage of an intermediate correction which could last until 03/24/06 (296.96), or more likely from 05/26/06 (284.43) to 06/30/06 (277.10). A complete correction bringing the index into the "retracement window" would occur with the index declining into the area of 259.35 (09/14/07) to 241.60 (02/29/08). I think this would assume a relatively strong dollar over the next few years, which I think is highly unlikely! (see third chart down)
COMMODITY RESEACH BUREAU (CRB) INDEX (WEEKLY CONTINUATION) - (11/01/05) The intensity (average velocity) of the historic rise in the CRB Index comes very close to the last "historic" move in the CRB index from 1977 to 1980. It looks like deja vue and a potential major top! See fourth chart down and make the comparasion.
COMMODITY RESEACH BUREAU (CRB) INDEX (MONTHLY CONTINUATION) - (11/01/05) This chart comes from www.MRCI.com , a great statistical futures and options reseach firm. I recommend you visit them if you haven't yet. Look at the move from the 1977 low to the 1980 high and compare it to the move from the 2001 low to the 2005 high. Deja vue!
..and who said markets don't have memories.
GOLDMAN SACHS COMMODITY INDEX (DAILY CONTINUATION) - (10/11/05)
NY CRUDE OIL (CONTINUATION HOURLY) - (09/01/05)
GOLDMAN SACHS COMMODITY INDEX (WEEKLY CONTINUATION) - (10/07/05)
NY CRUDE OIL (CONTINUATION HOURLY) - (09/06/05)
NY CRUDE OIL (CONTINUATION HOURLY) - (09/09/05)
NY CRUDE OIL (CONTINUATION WEEKLY) - (09/02/05)
NY CRUDE OIL (DECEMBER WEEKLY) - (07/28/05)
NY CRUDE OIL (DECEMBER CORRELATION & SEASONAL) - (07/28/05) This graph comes from Moore Research Center, Inc. (mrci.com), they can help you go with the odds.
NY CRUDE OIL (SEPTEMBER DAILY) - (07/28/05)
NY CRUDE OIL (JUNE DAILY) - (05/19/05)
NY CRUDE OIL (JUNE DAILY) - (05/18/05)
NY CRUDE OIL (SEPTEMBER DAILY) - (07/28/05)
NY CRUDE OIL (SEPTEMBER DAILY) - (08/02/05)
NY CRUDE OIL (SEPTEMBER DAILY) - (08/23/05)
NY CRUDE OIL (CONTINUATION HOURLY) - (09/01/05)
NY CRUDE OIL (CONTINUATION HOURLY) - (09/06/05)
NY CRUDE OIL (CONTINUATION HOURLY) - (09/09/05)
COMMODITY RESEARCH BUREAU INDEX (DAILY CONTINUATION) - (03/28/05)
NY CRUDE OIL (DAILY CONTINUATION) - (02/14/05)
NY CRUDE OIL (DAILY CONTINUATION) - (01/04/05) -
NY CRUDE OIL (DAILY CONTINUATION) - (12/03/04) -
NY CRUDE OIL (DAILY CONTINUATION) - (11/18/04) -
NY CRUDE OIL (DAILY CONTINUATION) - (10/14/04)
COMMODITY RESEARCH BUREAU INDEX (DAILY CONTINUATION) - (02/14/05)
CRB INDEX (DAILY CONTINUATION) - (01/08/05) - CRB Index is at the bottom of it's long-term up channel. ..A break here could turn trader psycholgy negative.
COMMODITY RESEARCH BUREAU INDEX (DAILY CONTINUATION) - (10/22/04) - This longer-term index chart is nearing an upside break-out. Considering that grains are likely in harvest (seasonal) lows and that it's likely the energies will stay high well into the winter, we could see a decisive break-out in the weeks ahead.
CRB Index (CYCLE SPREADSHEET) - The longer-term cycles point to a major low to occur in the time frame of 06/12/04 (11 year) to 06/21/05 (36mo.-44mo.), the low will most likely occur during the August-November 2004 period ..the usual seasonal low time frame. What this means, is look for a sell-off in commodities directly in front of us (seasonally)..crude oil and platinum are possible shorts here, but the major cycle bottom should be in the second half of 2004.
COMMODITY RESEARCH BUREAU INDEX (CRB) (MONTHLY CONTINUATION) - (02/04/04) There are three quick observations that can be pointed out about the monthly chart below. First, the long-term resistance is in the current area of 260 to 270. Second, a major (multi-decade) double bottom has probably occurred during the 1999 and 2001 period. Third, the current uptrend off the 2001 lows is the strongest since the 1977 to 1980 massive uptrend ..and there appears to be a very strong correlation between the two! It looks like the same "speed" spike up in the CRB index (77-80) is repeating itself again.
NY CRUDE OIL (DAILY CONTINUATION) - (01/26/04) The intermediate-term target for crude oil is 35.75 (02/11/04), but the market has been losing upward momentum and long liquidation may occur now and into the end of the month. A short-term correction could bring oil prices down to the 31.50 area.
NATURAL GAS (DAILY CONTINUATION) - (10/02/03) The time of year is right for the triple bottom in natgas to hold. The gap higher today looks like a good start to higher prices.
09/22/03 - Updated: NY CRUDE OIL daily chart.
09/16/03 - NATURAL GAS (DAILY CONTINUATION) - Gas appears to be holding it's own as petro sells-off. There appears to be major support in the area of 4.60, especially if it occurs around the cycle low due on 10/10/03. It looks like a buy setting up. Click Here.
09/12/03 - NY CRUDE OIL (DAILY CONTINUATION) - The next support area is 27.60 to 27.96. The current sell-off should be a good buy opportunity going into the winter. Click Here.
08/14/03 - NATURAL GAS DAILY CONTINUATION -Click Here.
08/14/03 - NATURAL GAS 30 MINUTE CONTINUATION -Click Here.
Natural Gas Price Analysis - July 18, 2003
The dramatic rise in natural gas prices during 2000-2001 and the subsequent collapse in prices to the lows in 2002, is still having a major rippling effect across the natural gas industry. Commercial users are straining to make the economics work and are applying alternative energy sources wherever it’s feasible. In commodity markets, it is usual for large price movements to be the driving fundamental that effect supply and demand dynamics. The following analysis of natural gas prices has a story tell in itself, which may prove helpful in timing future price movement and taking advantage of hedging opportunities.
This analysis is based on the NYMEX futures contract using a daily continuation of the nearest contract. Any questions about the contract or this analysis can be directed to Hal Swanson at 1-800-652-2367 or halswanson@cfos100.com . Your questions are invited.
Chart 1
This chart includes the parabolic price rise to 9.930 and it’s subsequent collapse to 1.960 (01/28/02). The initial sell-off from the high of 9.930 (12/29/00) to the projected 50% retracement price level (5.777) occurred at 8 times the “speed” of the overall rise from 1.620 to 9.930. This “8 times speed” is very rare in any commodity and almost always signifies a major top. Natural gas prices continued to decline at a rate greater than twice the speed (2X AV) of the major rise until 10/24/01 when the price crossed up through the 2X AV speed-line at the 2.680 price level (.875) and the price pattern began a major bottoming process.
Once crossing the 2X AV speed-line the price traversed it way across to the 1X AV speed-line and ran into resistance in the area of the price/time juncture of 3.718 on 05/23/02. The price then declined down 1X AV speed-line to the area of the next price/time juncture of 2.680 on 08/13/02. The actual low was 2.685 on 08/07/02.
Chart 2
The next price model uses the high of 9.930 (12/29/00) to the low of 2.685 (08/07/02) and projects the upward speed-lines and price/time junctures with a projected ideal “retracement window” and this is overlaid on the chart. Initially, the price rallied up at twice the speed (steepest sloping blue line), then traversed across to the center rising blue line, which is rising at the same speed as the 9.930 to 2.685 decline. As long as the price stayed above this center speed-line then the market remained in a positive mode. But, the price action did breakdown through the center blue line on 03/13/03, which became a clear sign that the price was losing of upward momentum. On 05/20/03 the projected 50% price/time juncture was precisely hit at 6.304, and after one more rally to the center blue speed-line the market began losing momentum and the upward move was completed in the “retracement window”, then the price retreated to the 1/2 speed-line (least sloping blue line). This is basically where the price is sitting today. A decisive break below this blue 1/2 speed-line should confirm a further sell-off is in order.
Chart 3
This chart projects the next sell-off with all the corresponding speed-lines and retracement levels. While the chart is somewhat confusing with all the various speed-lines and cycle points, it does show the inter-relatedness of the three price models. It shows the price currently declining with greater than twice the speed of the move from the low of 2.685 (08/07/02) to the high of 6.680 (06/06/03) (white steepest declining speed-line). This indicates greater negative price action is in place, and on 07/15/03 a previous low was penetrated also indicating lower prices ahead. The projected downward price target is 4.1212 to 4.684 between 09/03/03 and 11/05/03, with a possible decline to 3.70 on 09/25/03 if the market continues it’s current downward momentum. Also, there is major support in the area of 4.397 to 4.796 based on the two longer-term price models discussed above. The fourth chart below will simplify these latest price projections and should be easier to follow.
Chart 4
With some of the previous lines removed it is possible to see more clearly the price action relative to this last price model. One interesting observation is the correlation between price action and the “average velocity speedline” from the low 2.685 (08/07/02) to the high 6.680 (06/06/03). Look at the number of times the price has traded against this line, this is an excellent fit and gives confidence to the projections going forward. What would change these projections would be price action which crosses above the double speed-line with the next price/time juncture to watch is 5.154 on 08/04/03. The market does appear to be headed lower and the price targets given here appear quite realistic and achievable.
07/26/03 - Natural Gas Spreadsheet - On the longer-term oscillator gas went oversold on Friday, ..usually the funds cover some shorts when this occurs Click Here.
NY CRUDE OIL (JUNE DAILY) - (05/13/03) Today, June crude oil has moved into the retracement window between 29.02 (05-13-03) to 27.69 (05-27-03). The intense weakness to date would tend to indicate this latest rally will probably not last. ..Watch 29.02 to 30.35 for resistance to develop.
NY CRUDE OIL (WEEKLY CONTINUATION) - (04/15/03)
NY CRUDE OIL (JUNE DAILY) - (04/29/03) Watch for bottoming action in June Crude oil in the area of 24.79 (05/06/03) to 23.38 (05/13/03) ..I will be a buyer there. Probably, only a brief relief for the SUV'ers!
NY CRUDE OIL (DAILY CONTINUATION) - (03/26/03)
Crude oil is bouncing off the lower channel line and has moved into a potential turn date (03/26/03). Support should be 27.00 to 27.50 and resistance at 30.00 to 31.50. Look at short-term May options for swing trades.
NY GOLD (WEEKLY CONTINUATION) - (03/24/03)
Longer-term I'm bullish on gold, but here I would only use options. There is a possiblity of a sell-off to the $317.00 area which would also bring the price down to the average velocity speedline. Without an immediate upward reversal gold could sell-off more.
NY CRUDE OIL (DAILY CONTINUATION) - (03/21/03) Crude oil is now hitting the bottom of a major channel ..and has moved into an oversold condition. Look for commercial "short" hedgers to begin lifting shorts between 27.00 down to 25.00. I'm looking at cheap options and bull spreads as a price rebound seems likely.
PLATINUM (DAILY CONTINUATION) - (03/19/03)
NY GOLD (DAILY APRIL FUTURES) - (03/18/03)
NY CRUDE OIL (DAILY CONTINUATION) - (03/18/03)
NY CRUDE OIL (WEEKLY CONTINUATION) - (03/06/03)
NY GOLD (WEEKLY CONTINUATION) - (03/06/03)
NY CRUDE OIL (Weekly Continuation) - (01/10/03)
NY CRUDE OIL (Daily Continuation) - (01/10/03)
NY NATURAL GAS (Weekly Continuation) - (01/28/03)
NY NATURAL GAS (Daily Continuation) - (01/28/03)
NY CRUDE OIL (Weekly Continuation) - (01/10/03)
NY CRUDE OIL (Daily Continuation) - (01/10/03)
NY NATURAL GAS (Weekly Continuation) - (01/10/03)
NY NATURAL GAS (Daily Continuation) - (01/10/03)
CRB Index Daily Continuation Chart
Crude Oil Daily Continuation Chart
Crude Oil Daily Continuation Chart
Crude Oil daily Continuation Chart
NY Crude Oil (January futures) - (11/27/01) It appears an upward retracement (or signficant bottom) is forming. I would look to buy in the 19.08 to 19.18 area with stops in the area of 18.60 on a close basis. Short-term objective is 23.04 to 24.44 between 12/21 to 12/31.
Crude Oil daily Continuation Chart
Look for consolidation to develop in current area at least for a week or two. If no support develops in the 28.00 area ..quickly (now), then look for the price to drop to the 2X Mo. speedline. The price objective of 25.95 on 01/08/01 is certainly possible.
Crude Oil daily Continuation Chart (03/31/01)
Commodity Research Bureau Index Daily Continuation Chart
Gold Daily Continuation Chart
Gold Daily Continuation Chart
NY Gold (June 30 minute bars) - (05/20/02)
NY Gold (June 30 minute bars) - (05/17/02)
NY Silver (July 30 minute bars) - (05/17/02)
NY Gold (daily continuation) - (12/24/01) There is usually a seasonal price sell-off in gold from the end of December into mid-January. Important dates to watch is 01/02/02 (long-term 50% in time) and the harmonic date 02/07/02 (possible bottoming?). This could fit with a topping out of the US dollar between 01/23/02 and 02/28/01
Gold Daily Continuation Chart
Commodity Research Bureau Index Daily Continuation Chart
Gold Daily Continuation Chart
Gold Daily Continuation Chart
NY Gold (daily continuation) - (12/24/01) There is usually a seasonal price sell-off in gold from the end of December into mid-January. Important dates to watch is 01/02/02 (long-term 50% in time) and the harmonic date 02/07/02 (possible bottoming?). This could fit with a topping out of the US dollar between 01/23/02 and 02/28/01
Crude Oil Daily Continuation Chart
Crude Oil Daily Continuation Chart
NY Crude Oil (January futures) - (11/27/01) It appears an upward retracement (or signficant bottom) is forming. I would look to buy in the 19.08 to 19.18 area with stops in the area of 18.60 on a close basis. Short-term objective is 23.04 to 24.44 between 12/21 to 12/31.
NY Crude Oil February-June Spread & Seasonal (Moore Research Center, Inc.) - (11/27/01) I am looking for a spot to buy this spread. The seasonal timing would place the buy in the first half of December (see first chart below). The price entry (based on the second chart) appears to be in the current area.
NY Crude Oil February-June Spread Monthly Chart (Moore Research Center, Inc.) - (11/27/01)
NY Crude Oil (December 30 minute bar) - (11/06/01) BEFORE ..Crude oil poised for a move! After weeks of sharp decline ..crude oil appears oversold. I will look for a spot to buy after API numbers come out Tuesday afternoon.
NY Crude Oil (December 30 minute bar) - (11/08/01) AFTER ..We bought the $20.00 area on 11/07 and sold it to take profits in the $21.00 area on 11/08/01 for approximately $1,000 per contract. ..thank you very much.
NY Crude Oil (December 30 minute bar) - (11/06/01) BEFORE ..Crude oil poised for a move! After weeks of sharp decline ..crude oil appears oversold. I will look for a spot to buy after API numbers come out Tuesday afternoon.
NY Crude Oil (December 30 minute bar) - (11/08/01) AFTER ..We bought the $20.00 area on 11/07 and sold it to take profits in the $21.00 area on 11/08/01 for approximately $1,000 per contract. ..thank you very much.
NY Crude Oil (nearest futures) - (10/26/01)
U.S. Dollar Index (Nearest futures) - (10/25/01)
NY Crude Oil (nearest futures) - (10/26/01)
NY Crude Oil (December 30 minute bar) - (11/06/01) BEFORE ..Crude oil poised for a move! After weeks of sharp decline ..crude oil appears oversold. I will look for a spot to buy after API numbers come out Tuesday afternoon.
NY Crude Oil Monthly Continuation Chart
NY Crude Oil Daily Continuation Chart
NY Crude Oil Monthly Continuation Chart
NY Crude Oil Daily Continuation Chart
B>Crude Oil daily Continuation Chart
NY CRUDE OIL (daily continuation) - (04/10/02) Crude oil topped out exactly on it's cycle turning date (04/04/02). The sharp decline that is now occurring should find support in the area of 24.25 to24.75 with a possible extreme decline to 23.37. I am looking for a buy opportunity ..but need some sort of support first. Seasonally, there should be one more strong rally into at least mid-May.
NY CRUDE OIL (May daily) - (04/10/02) Crude oil is dropping at 4 times the speed of the last uptrend, at that velocity the next target is 23.78 on 04/12/02. I'm looking for support in that area.
NY UNLEADED GASOLINE (daily continuation) - (04/10/02)
NY GOLD (daily continuation) - (04/10/02)
NY Crude Oil (daily continuation) - (04/03/02) Tomorrow is an important date look for potential topping action, the price has now moved into the natural upward retracement price area. For more detailed analysis look at the 03/18/02 chart below.
NY Crude Oil (daily continuation) - (03/18/02) The projected upside retracement window is 26.45 (05/17/02) to 28.66 (06/27/02), notice the series of price swings on the left side of the chart, ..I think we'll see the same kind of swings on the right side too. There is also some resistance at 26.13 and a "filling the gap" in that area.
NY Unleaded Gasoline (daily continuation) - (04/04/02) Today was an important cyclic turning point in unleaded gas, ..and, it has now moved into the retracement window. Look for support in the area of .7862 with a probable pocket of stops below .7770, which could be a wash-out low into mid-April. I'm looking for wide choppy price action with resistance against recent highs (.8670 & .8685). The next important time frames will be 04/30/02, then 05/09/02 (which could fit into a seasonal high). I only am trading energies from the long side, ..madness in the Middle East keeps me from shorting it!
NY Crude Oil (daily continuation) - (02/11/02)
NY Crude Oil (daily continuation) - (02/11/02)
NY Crude Oil (daily continuation) - (02/11/02)
NY Unleaded Gasoline (daily continuation) - (02/09/02)
NY Unleaded Gasoline (daily continuation) - (02/11/02)
Fact: The estimated average annual oil taxes (1996-2000) collected by "G7" governments was $270 billion. While the estimated average annual of OPEC oil revenue was $170 billion.
Crude Oil daily Continuation Chart
Crude Oil daily Continuation Chart
Look for consolidation to develop in current area at least for a week or two. If no support develops in the 28.00 area ..quickly (now), then look for the price to drop to the 2X Mo. speedline. The price objective of 25.95 on 01/08/01 is certainly possible.
Crude Oil daily Continuation Chart (03/31/01)
NY Crude Oil Monthly Continuation Chart
NY Crude Oil Daily Continuation Chart
Bridge Commodity Index (CRB) (Cash Index) - (03/16) There are seventeen commodities which are components of the CRB Index, the sub groups are weighed as follows: grains 17.56%, meats 11.76%, softs 29.41%, metals 23.53%, and energy 17.65%. Look at the strong uptrend in the CRB chart below, from late February into mid May. In most years, there is bottoming price action or uptrends in these sub groups. This year is different!! The stock market fears and the flight-to-quality into the US dollar is forcing liquidation in export and industrial commodities.
Bridge Commodity Index (CRB) (nearest futures) - (03/16)
